Lefsetz: ‘Irishman’ Didn’t Kill Thanksgiving Movies But Netflix is Killing Movie Biz

“Did ‘The Irishman’ Take a Bite Out of the Thanksgiving Box Office”

“Don’t blame Netflix’s ‘The Irishman’ for the Thanksgiving box office being down this year.”

Just the fact they’re debating this proves the point.

The Irishman on Netflix was an event. Other than Frozen, was there a picture in the theatre you had to see?

Furthermore, platform releases died years ago, everything is day and date and that’s what Netflix affords!

You’re going to see this debate in the trades on a regular basis now.

You see theatrical distribution is dying.

Theatres don’t like it, the Academy doesn’t like it, many directors don’t like it, but the public LOVES being able to see fresh movies on streaming services.

Nothing has legs anymore. You’re here today, gone tomorrow.

If your plan is to spread the marketing of your art for over a year, you’re out of touch and dreaming or you just haven’t gotten traction yet.

No one wants to be left out anymore. When you close the door…

The dirty little secret is today’s audience can miss anything. Nothing is so important everybody has to see it. Whether it be a movie or series, or the impeachment hearings.

There are many offerings, we’re overwhelmed and we prioritize based on our own desires.

And one desire, which has nothing to do with technology, is to be a member of the group.

That’s what art affords, assuming you deliver it in a way that’s palatable to the audience.

And sure, there are Boomers who will seek out an art house film after the first week of release, and sure, kid pictures like “Frozen” might last more than one week, but that’s because it didn’t fit into your schedule. Or it was too crazy at first, with so many people going, or you were waiting for the feedback to make a decision whether to partake.

But streaming services allow people to partake INSTANTLY!

The movie business is swimming upstream in a country where Amazon’s focus is on SAME DAY DELIVERY!

I’ve got to ask you, why go to a store? That’s why malls are dying. Shopping can be entertainment, but it’s time-inefficient. And the outlets have become so talent lean, nobody is working in the store and those who do are unfamiliar with the product/unhelpful.

But we’re supposed to wait months to see a flick on the flat screen?

The movie business has always thought it was different and the rules didn’t apply to it. They justified it by saying people love movies.

People love story, wherever it’s exhibited people will watch. But today it’s got to be convenient.

And maybe even the business model is changing.

Hell, it’s changed for the talent. Pay is way down. Profit participation from dollar one gross? Essentially unheard of. The studios have loved making the movies bigger than the talent, they want the talent to be fungible.

So maybe you should just sell it to the streaming service for one flat fee. At least you’ll get to make what you want.

It’s a field day for talent, and it’s gonna last for a very long time.

You see it’s kinda like concert promotion, there’s always someone to pony up the bucks if you won’t, maybe a casino, so talent fees never decline, rather they rise!

Streaming services are based on hits. Distribution is king, which is why Netflix is so powerful, but it needs talent/story to grease the wheels. And catalog is not the driver, despite Disney and HBO believing so, it’s all about new product.

And the streaming service can absorb a flop much better than a studio releasing a theatrical film. One flop does not make everybody unsubscribe.

And less hype is needed to promote.

Maybe even putting something on everybody’s Netflix homepage is enough.

So, you can forget the TV ads, the print, even a lot of the b.s. hype. It appears on your service, and the audience tells you whether it’s worth watching. Because of the BUZZ!

The Irishman had buzz on Netflix.

It comes up in every conversation I’ve had this weekend. Not everybody agrees, we can argue as to the film’s merit, but we’ve all seen it or are going to see it and for the first time in a long time we’re all on the same page.

And we could finish it!

The Morning Show buzz is getting better, but most people partook of the early episodes and tuned out. It’s so much harder to resuscitate a flop than to grow a hit from kindling. Believe me, there would be early adopters who watched all of the Morning Show episodes right away and these people would tell everybody about it! Buzz starts with very few. And then it becomes a conflagration. That’s the power of the internet!

As for Business Insider‘s lame analysis of the dearth of hit movies…isn’t that the problem? It’s hard to create hit movies, and usually there’s only one a week and the rest flop/are forgotten.

It’s just like the economy, winners and losers. No one’s got time for losers in today’s multi-offering world.

You live and die in one day.

The movie business hates this, as if it could break the will of consumers.

I’ve got limited time so I go to Rotten Tomatoes, what is the consensus? Oh, I’ll take a risk on a film I’m very interested in if it’s in the eighties, maybe even the seventies. Below that I’m out.

Sorry, it’s like asking me to listen to your album 10 times to see if it grows on me. NO! I don’t want to waste the most valuable resource I’ve got, which IS time.

Modern technology/streaming services allow you to reach EVERYBODY or at least the 160 million with Netflix accounts. Never mind those sharing logins. Think of the power of this! If you succeed, your value goes up, both culturally and monetarily. Because it is a culture of winners. And those who win get richer.

The Irishman on Netflix is a breakthrough. And if theatrical distribution really meant that much, was so important, why did all that time in the theatre sell so few tickets and create a fraction of the buzz?

Movies are over in a day. Some albums are over in a couple of hours. Spotify can tell by the skip rates. But somehow the cabal of studio heads and exhibitors believes it’s gonna keep everybody locked in the past?

There will still be event pictures. Just fewer and fewer of them.

As for studios… These blowhards have been riding on their self-importance for far too long. Why do they get to decide what the public wants. Why do they get to tell creators what to do?

The streaming model is to give more options to more creators and let the public decide. Meanwhile, the studios are releasing fewer and fewer pictures (in fewer and fewer genres!) striving for blockbuster successes.

A blockbuster is something everybody sees and has an opinion on.

And today blockbusters are built on Netflix.

The recording business finally gave up trying to hold back the future, and revenues went up!

Make those pictures for streaming services, they need you!

As to whether you will end up with as many profits… Just think about it, all those marketing costs you’ll save. Why buy billboards? People are at home with the remote and the product is promoted right up front, there’s no way they can miss it.

This is a good thing!

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5 Responses to Lefsetz: ‘Irishman’ Didn’t Kill Thanksgiving Movies But Netflix is Killing Movie Biz

  1. J. Springer says:

    hollywood killed hollywood. I don’t watch movies anymore — at the theatre or have Netflix. Their stuff is total crap.

  2. chuck says:

    J. Springer is right. Hollywood got lazy, quit writing great scripts and turned the whole business over to CGI.

    The new SSJW movie (Star Social Justice Wars) movie is prima facie.

    JJ Abrams is what you get if you turned the Franchise over to Lefty.

    The trailers are BRUTAL. “This is our last stand, we won’t give up.” Truly inspired.

    Next up Spice Worms piloting Star Fighters discussing the “White Patriarchy” and then Aquaman screams, “Reeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!

    Kathleen Kennedy, the Darth Menopause has this little tiny 82 lb chick stomping mud holes in everyone while never, NEVAR changing her expression. I thought the very worst acting I had ever seen in my life was Samuel L. Jackson in Star Wars. The wooden trance like expression, a symptom of some type of ague, which probably has an actual medical condition ascribed to it—like “Brotha From Anotha Planet Disease” looked damn near fatal. It was so bad, that I imagined how funny it would have been if he broke into some ghetto Patois and told Vader he that, “Normally, you would be deader than fried chicken muthafukka, but my light saber is in the shop wid my Deuce and a Qwata.”

    How can you wreck Star Wars?

    They did it.

    “Hey, I got a good idea, lets get Hayden Christensen to play the lead, up against Natalie Portman.” Now THERE is some chemistry! The director probably had to sedate Portman every night.

    Even the writers couldn’t have fixed that. But it got a hell of a lot worse, if that is possible as time went by. This latest “trilogy” is physically nauseating.

    Adam Drivel as Kylo Ren, as the guy who should be blowing a horn on Rosh Hashanah instead of never, never even coming close to kicking some little girl’s ass.

    Gawd what a mess.

    Hollywood did kill Hollywood.

  3. Dennis says:

    I find bloopers from various game shows on youtube are funnier than any show on tv today. Just no writers with the talent to write really strong scripts like Pawnstars.
    I still like watching Andy of Mayberry and Beverly Hillbillies because the writing on those shows was great and all the actors fit the parts so well. To never award Don Knotts an oscar was a true travesty.

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