KC Confidential

No one tracks crime and punishment more analytically than local political scientist Dr. Ernest Evans…

Evans predicted what would happen in St. Louis after the Michael Brown shooting on August 9, and his predictions have come sadly true. In the six-month period starting August 1, there have been 104 homicides in Saint Louis. In the six months prior there had been 57.

To explain the surge, Evans cites a concept known as “de-policing.” He observes that in the course of their work, police must inevitably use force against citizens in the course of enforcing the law, African Americans included. “And, as any veteran police officer can tell you,” says Evans, “there is no such thing as a ‘nice’ takedown. They all look terrible on camera.”

If police cannot be assured of a decent shake by the media and the politicians after a particular incident, says Evans, “Out of sheer self-survival they abandon the streets of black communities.”

Sensing the vacuum, gangs and sundry criminal elements fill it. A classic “de-policing” scenario unfolded in Cincinnati after a white police officer shot and killed a black teenager in May 2001.

The media responded as cravenly as is their wont.

So did the political class. And the cops got the message: “If accused of racism, forget about due process and fair media coverage.” The police pulled back, and the homicide rate exploded. Ironically, the victimization rate among non-blacks stayed pretty stable. Among blacks, it shot through the roof. Continue reading →