The NFL playoffs start Saturday…
And for once – after all these years – the Chiefs are actually talking of SUPER BOWL. Nice to hear.
However the Chiefs are a mystery team – meaning nobody really knows what to expect. They’re 12-4, third best in the NFL, but only lately have they shown a consistent offense with QB Alex Smith running the ball much more. Tyreek Hill is a monster but needs more touches, and of course Travis Kelce is a big target along with Jeremy Maclin and Chris Conley.
The Chiefs will need a ground attack to keep Pittsburh’s Big Ben on the sidelines longer and that’s where HIll can help. I hope Hill gets sweeps and even runs up the middle.
Of course, that’s next week.
And yes, I fully expect to see the Steelers at Arrowhead.
Miami has small shot at winning the game at Pittsburgh, but not much more.
As for the other games, Oakland at Houston is a strange playoff game, huh?
Neither team has the quarterback they want playing. I like Houston at home against the rookie QB from Michigan State playing for the Raiders.
I’m concerned about his ability to hit his good receivers short and make this a close game.
The Packers should win a close one over the Giants, because of Aaron Rodgers and home field advantage. The Packers D is just ok, the Giants is much better. I’m not sure about Eli Manning in this one. He used to be a strong playoff quarterback, but it’s four years later and I wonder.
Seattle is an 8 point fav over Detroit.
And again, you have to like Seattle at home. However this isn’t the Seattle team that won a Super Bowl and blew one to New England two years ago. Their defense is far from what it once was and so is their rushing game…soooo….maybe Detroit on a tease.
As for the Chiefs, I will address that more next week.
I expect STEELERS/KC NEXT SUNDAY ARROWHEAD NOON…IT’S ALREADY ON SALE ONLINE IN PLACES…AGREED.
PRO PLAYOFF PICKS
HOUSTON + 3 OVER OAKLAND IN A TEASE WITH DETROIT + 14 over SEATTLE IN A TEASE
STEELERS -4 OVER MIAMI IN A TEASE WITH PACKERS +2 TEASE OVER NY GIANTS.
ALABAMA – 1/2 OVER CLEMSON IN A TEASE WITH STEELERS -4 OVER MIAMI
Hi,
We have one of Frankie’s signed T-Shirts and were thinking about her and wondering how she is.
We just read the 2012 entries about her and it would be great if you can bring us up to date. Is she still here in the KC area?
And my husband thinks she is related to Dan Marino?
Hope you don’t mind me contacting you about this.
Thanks for all you do. A and DJ
Football Genius? …. more likely Delusions of Grandeur.
Well CG I’ll give you credit you picked one underdog (Detroit). One more than usual. Statistics show favorites cover about 49% of the time (duh!) Vegas won’t say but estimates are the general public bets the favorite 65%-70% of the time. Pretty easy to figure out how Vegas was built off of guys like you betting favorites. Good luck though on this week’s picks.
PS – Packers are favored by 5 to 5.5 at every major book. Where are you coming up with +4.?
First off David, Vegas wasn’t built by guys like me, I have done well there with football. To say ‘you take favorites’ and its a 50% win/loss adventure isn’t true when YOU TEASE BET. I realize you don’t understand that nor do you ever bet in a real casino in Vegas…I’d say 95% of comment people here never have. When you tease bet you must make two football best and you can move the line 6 points…up or down on winning or over under, in two games or even just one…two bets, 6 points, up or down…must win both to win, one loss and you lose both bets…a tie is a push…
now on Packers…lines change all the time, when I set this, the Packers were a4 point favorite, now they have moved to 5 in some casinos. You can check ‘real’ odds on sportsandodds.com and even see hotel casinos lines on this site, hit ‘vegas line’ as you see they vary a bit from hotel to hotel…so when I teased it the Pack was -4 so moving the line by 6 made them a +2…see how that works…
So back to taking favorites…I think I usually do..unless there is too big a line like Detroit…when you move the line 6 points with the favorite your odds increase tons…I have taken dogs as well pending on the game…Nobody wins every bet…if you can bet consistently with your money and tease fav’s you likely will win overall…hope that helps you David.
Of course I understand teases. I also know Vegas LOVES them and guys like you that use.
Yes, lines move – but incredibly you ALWAYS give yourself the best one.
Did you see story on SBUX barista that won 900k in the Vegas handicapping world championship? $1500 entry fee. Any guess on his winning %. I put below link to story.
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/starbucks-barista-wins-900k-westgate-las-vegas-supercontest/story?id=44519218
66% and he beat over 1300 entries! You need to win 60% to basically break even. Betting is a loser’s game. I’m smart enough to only do occasionally and just for fun/entertainment. Guys like you that claim they win $ consistently are delusional/or liars.
Take a shot at the championship next year picking the favorites and keep us posted on how you do.
Well thank you for calling me a liar, I post my picks here, started off slowly but the last 7 weeks unreal only miscalled like three picks…remember my pic’s are not always my real bets but picks. You normally only make a couple bets a week if you want to win…most losers bet too many games….I learned years back only pro winners are at poker, usually hold’em or sports book…usually NFL or college and tease bettors….and few of those…its not easy but can be done…
I gave the option of delusional or lying. I really have enjoyed watching you consistently tease favorites the last few years. And in 2014 and 2015 you were absolutely terrible using this strategy. Don’t believe me? Here are your quotes on this site (look them up).
CG quote on October 16, 2016. “Yes last year was a poor one.”
CG quote on December 15, 2014. “Well I did have some crap calls on games this season.”
And if these are not your “real” picks just share the ones you really do make – betting ticket would help your credibility.
David I don’t need to prove anything to you…I make my picks this year was great and I’ve had great years…they are on here…as I’ve said before…nobody else … nobody in this media picks against the spread each week like I have…and nobody on this site including you makes picks…do they…some tried and had a good week or two and then got smashed and quit doing it here…I haven’t
I’m very good at it and thats why people ask my opinion…simple as that been doing it for years…nobody has great weeks all the time…we all miss…its a game not world war three…I have the balls to jump out on issues early and make my opinion known as with Donald Trump, Tyreek Hill on and on…media notices hey the guy has guts and is often on target…that’s all… you sound like JO JO/Harley…maybe you are don’t know if you don’t like my football picks then don’t use them, hows that…I have nothing to prove, I’ve proved all my points over and over…you have proved nothing soooo…lets have you pick against me hows that.
CG you definitely fall under delusional, not a liar. Seriously, do yourself a favor and look up the definition.
So…. just keep teasing favorites and thinking you are beating Vegas (except when you don’t like Detroit last night – favorites do cover half the time). Also maybe you can put an asterisk by your “real” picks.
And keep believing your book will become a movie.
I usually do enjoy your posts and it does take b@lls to put opinions out there – especially yours. I do respect that and am entertained.
Well David thanks for putting me under something other than a liar…understand any serious bets you wait til close to game time, why, weather, late injuries to main players like a quarterback, receiver, other main guys…happens all the time..and lines move up til the last moments…like today now Steelers are 12 point fav and Packers 5.5..both up from the day I picked them…so a real tease today is -6 on Steelers and plus 1/2 with Packers…very cold at both places…hard to pick over Rodgers or Big Ben but you could have Miami and 18 wow in a tease and Giants plus 11.5 huge…tough calls…I will stick with Steelers and Packers…I overlooked the Lions chances on the road and their quarterbacks kinda hurt finger also Detroit has no running game much like the Giants, all in the air and only a couple decent receivers, Giants do have a couple better ones but no real run game, Packers do…
As for my book to movie, well its under option with Mayhem/Disney we have a good script I co wrote and a good director and now have the script with offers out to major stars…my book/movie has been out under options for years with different major production companies as talked about in Variety, The Star and nationally…all online today even…you can google it…however its taken years and its out of my hands I can’t make a studio make the picture…if we land a big star we go…simple as that…I thought we were there with Clint and his producer and my director Rob Lorenz a couple years ago at Malpaso/Warners, but Clint didn’t want Rob to leave him, so it didn’t go…Rob left anyways last year after he produced SNIPER, always been with big guys, Chuck Roven/Batman, etc…its just politics and luck…so maybe this will finally be our year, hope so its a great story or guys like those wouldn’t have ever been involved….it has been a heartache to work on it all these years and still waiting, they do pay me, but the big bucks is on shoot…you get options and payment to write but its about 10% of your pay to produce, life rights, book rights and screenplay credit, plus an acting role, at my age I will likely be a ‘bad guy’ in it, hah…Craig is a college boy and my partner Woodbeck is an actor age 25-38…and the bigger star due to more available stars at that age than the one playing me so young…etc….I sure have worked hard on it both in LA and here…in the meantime I did produce several sports films and more…Champions Forever series, 5 movies…including two on Ali…all available today on amazon and at stores on dvd or online..it ain’t easy…
The main thing is at least I went out there and tried, back in the day with no book and still with pitches got deals…and made a career in LA for years…the film being shot back in the 80’s or 90’s sure would have helped me but such is life…now maybe it will be my final harah and I’m ok with that now. Sure I want to see it done…having a book for history is great, but a movie would likely keep the story going for years to come and I could do more books etc…such is the game. But you have to play to make it happen…
One more issue David, in a tease bet you can win it either way…if you have say Giants plus 11…and the Pack wins by a couple points or even more and have Packers you win or Giants you win…just has to fall between happens alot…and sure fav’s in a tease at home are usually the way to go, they are favored for a reason..home, better record, etc….so in teases a fav’s chances go way up due to adding 6 points for them…still I have picked dogs many times for various reasons but yes usually the fav and its worked more than 60% of the time..you never win them all, had I taken both fav’s yesterday I’d have won…
Just thinking out loud here, but does anyone know what % of games end up within 5 points of the spread? Seems like you’d need to know that in order to determine if a tease is smart.
Say 50% of games end up within 5 points of the spread. In that case, you should win 75% of the single games in a tease (all of the games within 5 points, plus 1/2 the other ones). So, the odds of winning a 2 game tease would be 9/16.
If only 25% of games end up within 5 points of the spread, you should win 62.5% of the games, or ~36% of the 2 game teases.
And speaking of delusional gamblers, when Petro moved to Vegas, didn’t he say that he planned on using his gambling winnings to pay his rent? (Or something like that)
Point well taken, here’s the problem with that, yes most games are decided in the NFL by 5 or less..true…BUT TO ACHIEVE THAT % YOU’D HAVE TO BET ALL GAMES…lots of money to be betting and some weeks it doesn’t go that way and you get killed…too many bets…
As for Petro I remember he had a radio show where he made picks but doesn’t anymore so my guess is that didn’t go so well, don’t know. I know guys who have those radio shows here and in other cities, they just try and get listeners to sign up online and pay them for their picks….THEY HAVE INSIDE INFORMATION..yeah like you do…for the most party they don’t…now some in Vegas and New York do have some scoops but often it doesn’t help…its still gambling..there are some big groups that pool in Vegas and do well you can join…remember the casino’s keep track of big bettors in a a casino bookie joint a bet over 5,000 is watched and you are recorded on tape and name if they can get it…if you bet them alot, and bookie joints are owned by outside interests NOT THE CASINO, so losing 5,10,20 grand matters to them, the casino at the tables has such a huge advantage they don’t care what you bet really…but the books do, and they have weekends they lose money…so they track you..if you are a regular and bet in the thousands…if you beat them say for 50 grand in a season THEY LIMIT YOUR BEST AND ESPECIALLY TEASE BETS…TO LIKE 7500 ON A TEASE OR 15 THOUSAND ON A STRAIGHT BET…YEP…many casino bookie places are owned by an outside company that has like 4 or 5 hotels…true…
So back to your theory….its too many games and a couple bad weeks of betting like 5 grand a game could destroy you…those odds are for the ENTIRE SEASON if you consider all games…
The groups have paid runners who go bet for them to avoid being watched but its tough cause you have to keep changing the runners and have to trust them not RUN OFF WITH YOUR DOUGH, hah…happens…there is no easy way Vegas has seen it all, but there really are good groups who win over 68% every year with well planned bets and most of those do tease bets, some are straight up, but not as often plus there is college which can be easier cause there are so many games and Vegas has trouble keeping up with lesser teams who you can bet on especially early in the season…can be done, but its a job.
Looks like picking the favorites was the way to go, I gave the Lions the 14 points on the road and they still got jacked….Steelers at KC, we knew that would be the case….Big Ben got dinged, we will see how bad that injury is soon….I think KC will be a slight favorite at home and now with Ben’s wearing a boot, like 2 points…more important our defense needs to show up big time and Alex needs to have one of his best games of the year…
I think the Chiefs are a 1 point favorite at home.
You are right Guy, 1 point some at 1 1/2….could be a pick’em by Sunday… our history with these guys for years has been bad…hope we can beat their ass!
Where is K these days? Time for you to weigh in on the Chiefs etc…
Are you kidding on K? Here is quick summary of what he would say – “Chiefs suck. Steelers win 4.2 million to -4. Also, it’s just one week, but wow, did teases sting you. 1-2 w teases while 4-2 on games you picked (I’ll give u credit for picking Steelers twice). OUCH. I’m thinking we might see some underdog picks from you this weekend – Pack, Steelers, Seahawks? Picking the Patriots has you written all over it.
David I did change my real pick to Clemson the over and 12 1/2 points…they cleared it on their own…I just like Bama…as for this week, yeah I have to pick Packers and take all those points…of course I want KC to win, but getting Steelers plus 8 or 9 hard to pass up..Pats should handle Texans with ease but 16 points a bit much at 10ish yes…Seahawks I think lose to Atlanta but close…so yeah 10 plus points in a tease sounds good…so yes I’ll be on some dogs this weekend…as for K, don’t know.
Plus all 4 home favorites covered last week. CG it was so set up for you!
I picked 3 of them…