In the wide world of Internet bugaboos, Paul Wilson’s insightful pre election predictions went unheralded…until now:
Here’s my final prediction for tomorrow’s election outcome.
The IBD/TIPP poll has always been my favorite and most reliable poll. It scored the Obama election to the exact number. Today they have Trump up by 2 points. The USC/LA Times poll shows Trump up by 5.
If Trump takes Ohio, NC and Florida, he wins. And Trump is winning or within 1 point in all three.
Mitt Romney and his magic underwear lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Trump is within spitting distance in each of those states and could win all of them.
I’ll stick with my forecast of eight weeks ago; Trump will win the popular vote by a landslide. But I’ll now add the he will eek out the Electoral College by 2-5 points max.
Where is the delta between the poll results and what will be the election results? How will he go from how it looks tonight and turn it into a win tomorrow?
First, the angry, white working class vote.
Close to 40 million people have early voted. It’s a groundswell of anger. And it’s not just white men, he has more white women on his side than we know. Why do I think that?
That leads me to the second delta – voters who have not been honest with pollsters. Whether that’s embarrassment over voting Trump or that underlying anger, it’s there. Online polling favors Trump much more heavily than phone polls.
Third, the black vote will not turn out for Hillary like it did for Obama.
She needs all the black votes but she’s not going to get them in the same numbers.
What will swing Florida?
My friend Ian said it best. Florida has a huge Haitian population and they hate the Clintons. I’m guessing it’s hard to poll them. They will turn out in large, uncounted numbers and could be the deciding factor for Florida.
There you have it.
Call it Trexit – because that’s what you’re going to see.
3,2,1… and we’re back!
Now where were we afore the plug was so rudely pulled on KCC? Oh snap, that’s right – TRUMP 2016! Kerouac nails another, just as He said would happen this election, for the last 1 1/2 years KCC re: our new POTUS.
Meanwhile, no sign of this blog’s biggest loser (‘h’e owes Kerouac $10K for all his pre-election bluster.) Not bad for an old man: perfect picking Trump, perfect 47 years in a row picking vs the swiss, perfect picking THE SF GIANTS vs the fraudroyals… man, I hate being right all the time.
🙂
If this is what it takes to make Harley disappear, I’d have voted for Trump 18 [only 17 of them fraudulently] times!