For proof that I’m right, let me first turn to my primary source for this story, local comedy club owner and media mogul, Craig Glazer…….
Now that I have your attention, I’ll continue.
I tend to pay attention to three polling sources I’m partial to. I like Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and Reuters. For the first time they agree this race is tightening. On August 26th, Reuters called it Clinton 295, Trump 171.
Last week, that looked more like Clinton 242, Trump 243.
There are 10-12 states that can still be swing states – two of which split the Electoral College vote instead of the common winner-take-all. Seven, in particular, are having unexplained shifts, but I think we can determine the genesis with relative certainty.
In the past few days, Florida has had an 11 point swing towards Trump. Pennsylvania, the state I personally think will play the biggest role, has had a 5 point swing. Nevada comes in at 5, South Carolina, 5, Colorado 8 and Iowa 11.
All are slowly shifting towards Trump, the “unelectable” candidate.
Personal opinion only, I see two factors coming into play.
First, the true effect of Johnson’s numbers on the polls, how they are accounted for and how it helps or harms.
Second, Trump polls completely different in on-line opposed to live phone calls. It first looked like an anomaly but too many polls now agree, people seem to lie about whether or not they support Trump during a phone interview.
On the flip side, Clinton polls 5 points stronger in phone polls over on line polls.
While not a science, pollsters seem to agree if an issue is controversial – let’s say, whether or not you’d vote for Trump – the truth is far more likely to appear in online questioning. A second thought into the psychology of this may be the anonymity offered in online polling which far more closely resembles the voting booth.
You’re more likely to make your true feelings known in privacy.
Since our elections are decided based upon the Electoral College and not popular vote, making just a few states the deciding factor, perhaps it would make sense to more heavily weigh the results of online polls in those states.
There’s still more than enough time for the polls to fluctuate. And, let’s not forget the first presidential debate next week that could change it all.
I call the first debate advantage – Trump.
Why?
He will benefit from lowest expectations. What people will expect most in their non-expectation is that he will be the same Trump he has been and get pulled into a clash of personalities and one liner insults. But since his most recent staff shake up, he’s seen the light and has been a far more controlled orator. If he handles himself that way in the first debate and goes high when she goes low, it’s his to lose.
You’re seeing a slow change that could be sustained and have to balance all factors on all sides. There are those who claim they are going to vote for Clinton because it’s the hip, trendy thing to say.
However they may not show up.
You have the Clinton devotees who may have been swayed in the past weeks over health concerns.
But the biggest factor is how many people have lied about being a Trump fan that will walk into that booth and pull the lever for Trump, walking out never admitting they did?
Long story short, I’ve never seen a mathematical path to a Trump victory, but I think that path is getting clearer with each day.
The debates will seal that deal, either way.
“Don’t Kid Yourself – Trump Can Win”
– Don’t kid yourself – Trump can will win … there, fixed.
Have come to the not so shocking affirmation that all polls left and/or right be biased, liberal news reporting much more overt in their driven agenda. As such, believable as both candidates themselves – ‘two liars’ – no waiting. White lies and damn considered, prefer Trump’s acute stat to Clinton’s chronic istics. Nod the 1960 Kennedy vs Nixon debates, ‘never let em see you sweat’ may be replaced ‘is there a doctor in the house’ case Clinton. Can’t imagine her being able to stand an extended period of time sans a walker, wheelchair or wall to lean on (maybe she and he can sit together a love seat.)
Anyway, back to your take, stop it Paul – stop it right now with your truth purveying… Kerouac would hate to see a grown man (or even the not so magnificent ‘h’) cry.
🙂
My son in law made a cojant obsevation last night. He remarked he’d never seen an election with so few yard signs. There’s one guy on my block with a Trump sign. He’s replaced it 5 times over theft issues.
“There’s one guy on my block with a Trump sign.”
– every neighborhood needs such a man (‘Paladin Paladin, where do you roam’…)
“He’s replaced it 5 times over theft issues.”
– sign of the times: steal a sign, an election, the last penny a dead taxpayer’s eyes. That case, wire Paul Kersey instead…
Kersey: “Heyyyyy, what’s the problem?”
Thief at Sign: ‘What?’
Kersey: “With the sign… what’s the problem?”
Thief at Sign: ‘I’m stealing it, what’s it to you?’
Kersey: “It’s my sign.” [shoots thief dead]
Death Wish 2016 Part VI: ‘The Taker and the Undertaker’
🙂
old man…put your five social security checks up and lets see if you
got any balls left.
You are 1-50 so lets see if the old guy still has any guts left.
get your money…I want to make sure I’m paid!
Ya know with glaze you never know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Case of the disappearing strike-through, ‘can’ (sure love the non-edit format, HC.)
🙁
Jeh Johnson is in charge of counting the votes.
The media is in charge of making sure the votes are counted accurately.
What could go wrong?
Nothing at all Chuck.
Hey, Candy, you’re kind of a big eff’ing deal! Thanks for being a “devoted fan, dis3ple and reader.” If I could get an autographed promo pic I’d be elated. I went to “jurnalisum skool” and wanted to be just like you!
Paul thanks for the mention. I wrote a story on tonys a few days back on the same issue. You did a great investigation into the WHY TRUMP numbers. Trump is now in a clear position to win. Its even and most feel he will do better in the debates. If he continues to gain its his. I noticed this morning his rallies are huge and hers are small.
She is not Obama, will those young voters and African Americans rally behind her? I think not nearly as much as Obama had. He needed all of it to win.
Clearly the current violence, terror attacks, Clintons many problems from health to just nothing new to offer, give Trump the edge. Plus he has calmed down. Even Cruz is swinging his way now….so….I think Monday is now HUGE for both. The showman vs. the professional politician. I just think if Trump stays on course, isn’t too mean on stage, and stays fired up…he will win the debate. We all know the issues. It’s been an amazing comeback for Trump.
Agreed, and, you’re welcome. Had to add a little comedy.
At least you know where you stand with a bigot.
Not so with a con artist.
If I had to pick one of the two, I’d hold my nose, and vote Trump.
I don’t know that he’s a bigot, but I am pretty certain of this. You don’t get to where he is in business without screwing a lot of people. I’m sure he’s a disingenuous, ruthless person at the core of his being.
Then, the billion dollar Clinton Pay to Play foundation with documented direct ties to making a donation – getting access to the State Department. There is likey no dirtier couple in the history of US politics.
But our illiterate commenter thinks Trumps tax returns will eliminate him? How could anything ever in his tax returns, including never having paid a dime in taxes or never having made a charitable contribution stand up against the resident evil of the Clinton Foundation?
It’s anologous to someone running against Hitler, post holocoust, and saying of Hitler’s opponent, “You know….that guy had a DUI at one point in time?”
Comparing a potential Trump tax issue to the Clinton history is comparing apples to bulldozers.
Thanks again for your comment.
I’m sure Trump only took advantage of those legal loopholes that were put into place by none other than those doing the griping. You’re right, though-his tax returns wont affect the opinion of his supporters in the least.
[I only referred to him as a bigot because thats how the left likes to portray him.]
The Clintons have found out how to pinch every red cent out of politics. They’re better at it than Dick Cheney was, and thats bad.
Here’s the thing about Trump supporters and what their “core” issues are and why they are with the Tangerine Man:
1. The wall. The great big wall. Keep those pesky Mexicans on their side of the border.
2. Deportations/Immigration. 11 million of those job-stealing Mexicans shipped back to where they came.
3. 2nd Amendment. Clinton is going to repeal it and come steal our guns.
The problem with all of these issues is that NONE of them are EVER going to happen. There will NEVER be a wall. Financially/logistically/politically/legally impossible. Impossible! In regards to those pesky illegals, it is basically a zero sum game at this point and the number is NOT growing. To those folks who think the 2nd Amendment can be repealed: Get a clue and research what repealing an amendment involves. It will never happen. This is the greatest hoax and the biggest boon for the NRA and gun dealers. The EXACT same things were said 8 years ago about President Obama. How’d that work out?
The vast majority of American voters are uninformed, uneducated and simply vote by color. Red or blue. Regardless of what idiot is running under “their” political color, that’s the one they pull the lever for. Period.
Good article, PW! I’ll be glad when all this BS is over.
Couldn’t agree with you more.
Thanks for the compliment and you’re welcome.
HARLEY HAS 10k SITTING HERE WAITING FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS TO
BET ON TRUMP.
SO FAR NONE OF YOU OLD GUYS HAVE TAKEN ON THE CHAMP.
SO IF YOU WANT TO PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS…
LETS GET IT ON.
HARLEY IS THE KING…AND IS NOW POSTING AT TONY’S.
Good luck! Harley is rolling!
I guess people don’t want to vote for a 68-year-old woman with Parkinson. Let’s be honest, Clinton is more then likely going to die in two years, so what’s the point of voting for her?
The point in voting for her is that Trump is likely to die before May so you get more time with Clinton. Your smart, you know that
Word, I’ve watched my ex father in law make a 12 year decline into the abyss of Parkinson’s. So if she had it at all, it has a long way to go and most certainly won’t be her end.
The question in my mind is, even if she had a terminal diagnosis of some form, how big a narcissist would you have to be to spend what precious time you have in such a grueling campaign and job? Just to say you were president and die?
Clearly she’s failing in ways, but being close to someone and seeing the side effects of a traumatic concision, I’d say that’s the best bet.
Thanks for your comment.
Your answered your own question.
“if she had a terminal diagnosis of some form, how big a narcissist would you have to be to spend what precious time you have in such a grueling campaign and job? Just to say you were president and die?”
Hillary thinks the presidency is her birthright. A right that was taken from her in 2008. So yes she is that big of a narcissist. Whatever she has only a hack would think it’s a Pneumonia.
You’re best bet is that Hillary has Parkinson’s after seeing it first hand with your ex father in law? Parkinson’s must not be that big of a deal then.
No, I’m DOUBTING she has Parkinson’s. And if she did, it would be in its ultra early stages.
She has something that isn’t an Pneumonia.
Parkinson’s, Cancer, Epilepsy, something.
Don’t think things are as close as the daily news herd breathlessly babbles: IEM is the standard bearer in markets and it’s not close. More importantly Pollster shows a significant lead for Clinton, more so once you throw out outliers like FOX Polls and –weird…or not, given Trump’s many business ties to Russia– Rasmussen Reports, which has been suspect going back to at least 2010.
Finally, if the debates are actually moderated, instead of being Lauered, that will certainly motivate Clinton supporters, Republicans, Independents and all non-deplorables to get off their asses and vote come November.
I would expect an election outcome similar to Obama’s drubbing of Mitts.
Minus the magic underwear, of course.
It will be YUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!
You could be right. I discount the obvious suspects; any one trusting a FOX poll or news in general are automatic idiots and uniformed voters.
Thanks for the comment.
I pay no attention to polls since I lie to the pollsters, and as a result, I get requests for money from both sides. However, I also pay attention to the candidates, Congress, and the Courts, the latter influencing the race as much as the candidates. The Ninth Circuit just upheld a California Gun Control Law, proscribing confiscation, allowing national recognition for a California Law, passed by the Democrat Legislature and signed by the Democrat Governor Moonbeam. The reason I say whoops is that Montana, under the jurisdiction of the same court, has vowed only to allow the confiscator to have the ammunition first. Even Democrats in California are questioning the acts of the legislature, as there are 10 million guns in the state that California knows of, but that’s just the legal ones. With Clinton saying she will nominate the first justice the same judge Obama nominated, the one with the anti-second amendment ruling on the DC Court, perhaps it explains the NRA’s enthusiasm.
The second problem is business. Clinton thinks that infrastructure creates jobs, and that taxes and regulation have no effect on business, not that Trump is really any better. The question is an old one. Who does the most good, the priest or the entrepreneur? The priest working under the vow of poverty tends to the sick and troubled, but were it not for the wages paid to the employees by the entrepreneur, or the taxes if you insert a middle man, the priest could not survive. It is wonderful to build a highway, employ workers for the term of construction, but the materials and wages still have to come from debt, tax receipts, or other beneficial government projects. Maybe people are starting to get it. Infrastructure is great, as long as we are not paying the bills, and MODOT does not spend 1 million dollars on 2/10 mile markers in this day and age when a cell phone can locate you within 3 feet. I will not tell you who to vote for. I personally think that all politicians need another term, but not in Congress, say 3 to 5 in a lovely gated institution. The good part is that my vote is secret, so you cannot judge me on the stupid idiots I vote for, but I can judge you, if you let me.
Cowboy, as always, good comments from the dark side. We have had this debate in person for years now but I’ll counter a few of your points more publicly.
First your general point about infrastructure maintenance. Even the most ardent libertarians I know who think government only has two responsibilities, the other being defense of our shores will agree that maintaining the roads, bridges, docks, etc. is the job of government.
The second point is the misguided opinion (imho) that only the private sector creates jobs and only the private sector should spend money ( create demand) in the economy. Based on our past history, the economy seems to run at it’s optimum when the spending is split 70/30 between the private sector and the public sector. When the economy falters due to shrinking of private spending (shrinking demand) the public sector must act to fill that void for the sake of the economy. In our past discussion you have stated that it wasn’t government spending programs under FDR that saved us during the great depression, it was the WW II. It was government that spent all the money for that period also. Government spending is not a bad thing. Why does the right side of the aisle think that?
Finally, and we will never get past this point but it certainly does mobilize the GOP base. Advocating for even the most basic of gun laws does not equate dems trying to take everyone’s guns away.
Stay at it Cowboy. Love reading your rhetoric. 🙂
WISLON…THIS IS THE FIRST OF WHAT WE FIND IN TRUMPS TAXES…
HE’S A RUSSIAN PUPPET…AND US GOVERNMENT KNOWS IT….
I’VE SEEN THE PAPERWORK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“For the record, I have ZERO investments in Russia,” he wrote on Twitter in July.
He later told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, “Will I sell condos to Russians on occasion? Probably. I mean I do that. I have a lot of condos. I do that. But I have no relationship to Russia whatsoever.”
But an ABC News investigation found he has numerous connections to Russian interests both in the U.S. and abroad.
“The level of business amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars — what he received as a result of interaction with Russian businessmen,” said Sergei Millian, who heads a U.S.-Russia business group and who says he once helped market Trump’s U.S. condos in Russia and the former Soviet states. “They were happy to invest with him, and they were happy to work with Donald Trump. And they were happy to associate—[and] be associated with Donald
IT’S BILLIONS HE OWES CHINA AND RUSSIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And he
ain’t got the cash to pay them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So as
they say ‘YOU PAY OR YOU PAAAAAAAAAAAY!”
yard signs… i live in PV (yeah, oh well)… no Trump yard signs. no Hillary signs either for that matter. get the sense homeowners around here enbarrassed to put either one up.
but on Thurs. i was up along MO 116/33 highway and dropped down into Lathrop. no embarrassment there… yard signs everywhere… all Trump. big signs, little signs. no comment from me regarding rural Missourians, but i was struck by the number of them. first i’d seen anywhere.
(k-rac… passed a home with 1970 Challenger out front, pristine. big Trump sign, too. house looked like it hadn’t been painted since 1969. yours? 😎)
“k-rac…”
– yes, what is it now?
“passed a home with 1970 Challenger out front, pristine”
– yeah, that’s mine… Kerouac saw you staring at it while pushing your (stalled) 1985 Yugo GV. The (loosely speaking) car that forces everyone who owns one to walk to work, the described “Mona Lisa of bad cars.” The review continues “built the Soviet-bloc Yugoslavia, the Yugo has the distinct feeling of something assembled at gunpoint. Featuring a rear-window defroster – reportedly to keep your hands warm while you push it. The engines went ka-blooey, and the electrical system (such as it was) would sizzle, and things would just fall off. Yugo. Or not.” Need a jump?
“big Trump sign, too.”
– you didn’t try to steal it, did you?
” house looked like it hadn’t been painted since 1969. yours?”
– no, I’m Republican…
🙂
you’d have had to be pretty eagle-eyed to see me ‘staring’ at it whilst going by at about 50 mph. which, btw, also refutes the Yugo, since i don’t think they could hit 40 mph let alone 50.
btw… sherwin williams has a paint sale going on. told they have some groovy colours from 1969 – appliance avocado green and harvest gold, pink paisley, tyedye yellow and magenta, and glow in the dark orange. hit the pipe, turn on the black light, and Incense and Peppermints your way to nirvana! farrrrr out!!!
Hues thence Panther Pink, Plum Crazy (and alternately known Statutory Grape), Go Mango, Sublime, Banana, Hemi Orange and one Kerouac’s personal/fave choice, Light Metallic Gold, a one year only option. Groovy describes the color & personality yours truly and the ride, described a decade ago Nevada newspaper human interest story:
‘The first thing you notice is the car: radiant gold with black racing stripes setting atop chrome Cragar wheels, latter a tip off this one is from another era. The hood emblems speak the Holy Grail of vintage muscle car lore – 426 Hemi. Alone at rest its element the street or in a crowd any, the 1970 Dodge Challenger stands out.
So too this car’s driver.
Like the Challenger, he looks of another time… the impression left timeless. Tall, dark and handsome, when the slim man removes his mirrored eye-wear one does not have to wonder what a young Elvis would have looked like with a beard and longer hair. His voice too is impressive: measured tones and a dulcet quality befitting the former radio / television announcer and actor.
Where the original perished, this Kowalski lives, and our conversation suggests that he shares the movie version’s same existentialist persona.’
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If were able post a picture Hemi and I, would do so. Shy said, narrative must suffice to reiterate: it’s always 1969 at Kerouac’s house.
🙂