Nate Silver told me Donald Trump can’t win…
You remember Brother Nate, who called the last election which Mitt Romney thought he was gonna win and Karl Rove couldn’t believe he lost. Silver got it exactly right in the New York Times, which unlike a winning sports team didn’t give him what he wanted, so Silver decamped to ESPN, where he’s been marginalized.
But he’s still right.
It’s weird to see the old guard bumping up against the new, the Baby Boomers and aged Gen-X’ers being flummoxed by the digitally-savvy youngsters. MP3s were not embraced by oldsters until the iTunes store. Hell, Adele just sold a boatload of CDs to the aged, and you’ve got an oldster-controlled media which believes what they say matters, when the truth is the data doesn’t lie.
Oh yes it does, you say! Numbers can be manipulated to say whatever you want them too, you can’t trust polls!
Which is why Silver aggregates them, and we can argue with interpretation, but raw data counts. And what the data says is Donald Trump has high unfavorables. He might have 20+% of the electorate today, but when the losers drop out are their followers going to decamp to Trump? Not according to the data. Which also tells us this far out the polls are nearly meaningless.
So you can ignore the Trump show. It’s gonna get canceled.
But you’ve got the aged media reporting on what he says like it counts, which it doesn’t. Why does the sideshow always become the main show in America?
Not that Mr. Silver always comes down on the side of the Democrats, data is neutral, Silver said the Republicans were gonna clean up in 2014 and they did.
If anything, Silver’s predictive abilities are scary. They deflate us. They illustrate what we thought was exciting is not, that what we thought was up for grabs is not. And people like Silver can actually eviscerate hope and make it so people don’t vote.
But you shouldn’t argue with the data.
Nate Silver
(Silver’s) predictions should be on the front page of every newspaper.
But then what would the bloviators on the 24 hour news channels have to say?
However the truth is that’s a dying paradigm. TV news ratings are already anemic. News is an on demand item. The only question is where are you going to get it?
Right now we’ve got chaos, with too many sources, but what we’re gonna see is consolidation. Just like there were six major labels and now there are three.
It always comes down to the numbers.
But now there are more of them. And we’ve got better interpreters.
You see these are teachable skills. Statistics is known as one of the hardest subjects in college, to be avoided at all costs, but those who take it and build upon it end up ruling the universe. That’s what Facebook is based upon, data. Do you think Mark Zuckerberg cares where you went on vacation, what you ate for dinner? No, he just wants to be able to slice and dice this data ever so finely so he can sell it to advertisers. Zuckerberg is selling efficiency. Targeting consumers directly. And the more outlets he owns, the more Facebook and Instagram, et al, can’t be ignored.
Meanwhile, the hoi polloi are fixated on nitwit entertainers, whether they be Justin Bieber or Donald Trump. Bieber’s got power but he’s not exercising it for good, because he’s a know-nothing, and Trump is smarter but is pretty powerless himself. It’s artists who touch hearts and change minds. He or she who wrote that song that saved you from committing suicide…they’re the ones you’re gonna listen to. But today they’re not saying anything.
Which is why the techies are the new heroes. Because when emotion is fake, you fall back upon facts. And if you don’t believe in facts, if you can’t recognize the power of data, you’re doomed to be whipsawed by a culture wherein self-evident truths are more important than spin.
Nate Silver made a bad career move.
He gave up his pulpit and sold his entire enterprise to ESPN. He thought he was gaining freedom, but really he was building his own prison. In a world where it’s nearly impossible to reach everybody, where most people can’t sing two Taylor Swift songs, why would you abdicate your perch overseeing the land? Why would you marginalize yourself?
And why would the New York Times let him go? It was the established players who wouldn’t let him write about sports, his passion, they pushed him out the door, to the detriment of both Silver and the paper. Nobody won.
And personalities count. The Times has new data reporters but they’re faceless and untrustworthy. It takes years to win people over.
And Silver has faceless writers on 538 who’ve earned no trust either.
But he’s free to do what he wants in obscurity.
But you’re free to inform yourself, you’re free to look at the world dispassionately and navigate it to your advantage.
Pay attention to the numbers. Interpreted by people who know the game and can make sense of them.
I used to be very afraid of Donald Trump.
Then I read Nate Silver.
Who hasn’t been wrong yet.
Are you gonna bet against Pixar?
Then don’t discount Nate Silver.
The world is run by a small coterie of people who truly know and understand the game.
Be one of them.
nate is a statisfical genius.
However….with the repub race so cheap to run that many of the lower tier
candidates can run on nickels it will split up the delegates to the convention.
When guys are still in it with 2% (like Christie) who can get millions of
dollars you know there’s a problem.
And remember that trump is doubling his spending getting ready to win
iowa (where he leads by double)…and new Hampshire where he leads
right now big.
But he has money…lots of it…and if you’ve watched his rallies
he’s get 10k-15k per stop…which is a lot of people this early.
I truly want trump to win…because he’ll destroy the republican party
for years to come. His 30% is only of the repubs….there’s 70% of them
who aren’t for him. Carson can last….Cruze will last (and he’s surging right
now according to polls) Rubio will last…..and Christie can last especially
in new Hampshire.
come on don…wrap this thing up. You’d be the clown if you got enough
votes to win….and once we get to new years….everything changes.
It’s the organization that wins…and so far cruze has a strong organization….
carson has his loyalists…and trump has all the low end uneducated vote who
believes whatever he says because they got nowhere else to go after their
fellow rethugs lied and cheated them.
You’re confused as usual.
Do a little reading before you post an article.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/
“Trump is Toast”
– the panic out there is palpable re: the next President of the United States… they keep trying to kill him off, but like Jason from Friday the 13th, ‘The Donald’ keeps coming back. Actually he hasn’t gone anywhere – still leading in the polls, he’s also leading in more than one head to head vs Hil-dabeast – nod Sheen, “winning.” He’s shaking up the left, he’s shaking up the right & he’s gonna shake up & wake up this country, make America great again. Our long national nightmare & the blackest of dark days US history are drawing to an end: TRUMP 2016
🙂
another wrong prediction. would you be willing to put up some money
to back up your typical b.s.?
Trump 2016 ??? Mets 2015 !!! How’d that work out for you?
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and 60+ years of no legit Championships football & baseball KC = PERFECT!
TRUMP 2016
🙂
Trump is a clown with money who taps into the anti-politician mood.
Cruz is a bible-thumping buffoon who gives evangelicals wood.
Carson is an anti-science nut that mesmerizes uneducated and delusional voters who believe that the end of days is upon us.
The best the repubs have to offer? ‘Nuff said.
It isn’t going to matter who the Dems nominate. They’ll keep that Lib training running another 4 years in D.C. Thank goddess!
Kaisch is the only adult in the race.
I agree, Orphan. But, he isn’t NEARLY far enough right for the party. It’s too bad. Seems like a good dude
I don’t agree with Kasich on all of his views, and he is certainly prone to say stupid things every now and then, but he’s not one to get butthurt if he doesn’t get his way like a Trump or a Huckabee. He’s smart enough to know when he is beat on an issue, let his opponents win the battle, and try again another day to advance his views.
Frankie…come on….kay sick’s record is horrendous
and what he did to voting rights in ohio andyou’d
die.
Where do you get your info? National Enquirer?
oh mytheway….how’s Caitlyn doing? That’s a story/
comment that would be perfect for you.
Harley, you can’t let perfect be the enemy of good. Cut Frank some slack here. Kasich is a republican governor who took federal money for Obamacare in his state. He may not agree with the O man’s plan but he is putting what he thinks is best for his state and the healthcare of his citizens ahead of personal objections. How many republican governors in the country did that? Some republicans are clearly better than others from my perspective. If I had to live under a republican president for the next 4 years from the current list of hopefuls, Kasich would be in the top 2-3. Trump, Cruz, Carson, and Huckabee would hold down the bottom.
Been a follower of Silver back from the NY Times days — he’s brilliant
today’s online wagering sites, where people put their money where their mouth is, have Rubio the fave at +130, with Trump second at +300 for the Repub nomination.
sadly, for America — they have Hillary as even money to win it all.
basically, when it’s all said and done, all the positioning, the billions of dollars spent, the polls, surveys, newscasts, predictions, consultants consulting, lobbyists lobbying, bickering, backstabbing, baby-kissing mumbofreakin’jumbo…
it’ll be business as usual.
This parade of fools the GOP keeps marching through Washington has done more to popularize the liberal agenda than any Democrat politician could dream of doing. The strategy seems to be to alienate the electorate, then blame Obama.
HILLARY 2016.
could you imagine just ripping old man trump to pieces in from of 100 million
americans.
First question: as a republican why do you approve of abortion on demand?
that shoud be the start and end of the debate aspublic finds out trump is a
s liberal as Hillary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!what a great con game this guy is
playing.