Kansas City crowd estimates used to be great sport…
Especially since nobody did any actual counting, so pretty much anybody and everybody could play – and play they did! The owners of the Country Club Plaza were the most prolific. Year after year they upped the attendance numbers for the vaunted Plaza Lighting Ceremony until it reached more than a quarter million people.
However the worst offenders were local television “newscasters” who with zero compunction embraced the unquestioned “estimates” then goosed the numbers to 300,000 or more. Like I said, anybody can and did play.
Enter a local businessman named Gary Evert who teamed with UMKC math and statistics professor Yong Zeng and lead a task force of students and volunteers to actually count the crowd, employing Jacobs Method.
Evert’s official tally: 32,000 and change.
In other words, about 10 cents on the dollar in comparison to media and Plaza estimates.
A front page bust went down in my column in the Kansas City Star, resulting in a confession by the Plaza that it had never counted the crowd and had no idea how many people were at its lighting ceremonies.
Which brings us to Tuesday’s Kansas City Royals Million Man March.
You know, the dazzling spectacle that prompted grown men – people like KC Mayor Sly James and Kansas City Star sports columnist Vahe Gregorian – to blather about completely ridiculous crowd numbers ranging from 500,000 to 800,000 people.
Straight faced, no less.
Look, it’s one thing for a sports booster organization like the Kansas City Sports Commission to engage in laughable hyperbole with an estimate 0f 500,000 people. It’s the commission’s mission to engage in fact and truth bending in order to secure funding for athletic contests, sports stadiums and the like.
It’s also equally obvious that they haven’t a clue about counting a crowd – they’re PR flacks by nature, not numbers crunchers. So wouldn’t it make sense for the Star and other quote/unquote “legitimate” media to brush aside such silly estimates and play it safe by describing the gatherings in terms of “tens of thousands?”
Anybody who watched Tuesday’s parade and rally on television could recognize that.
However, when Kansas City’s mayor got into the crowd estimating game and certain national media started picking up on claims by “officials” that as many as 800,000 people had been involved, a reality check was in order.
According to whom? Officials? What officials? And how did they arrive at those numbers?
Enter City Hall spokesman Chris Hernandez who claimed Jacobs Method had been used
“Jacobs would turn over in his grave if he heard that count,” Evert quips. “I’d like Chris Hernandez to introduce me to the person who used Jacobs Method.”
Uh, fat chance (more on that later).
“We used Jacobs Method – exactly as he laid it out – on the Plaza – we didn’t do it here because we would have needed two dozen people to do it properly,” Evert continues. “And since that wasn’t available, I used Google Earth.”
And who did the count for KC’s mayor?
“Who did the count?” Hernandez gulps. “Oh, someone who works at City Hall, but it’s clearly just an estimate.”
May I speak with him please, I asked?
“No, because here’s the deal,” Hernandez tap danced. “It’s someone who works in my department and he just did it for us. He’s not an expert.”
According to Hernandez, said dude looked at aerial photos and somehow came up with 720,000 people, which was then “rounded up” to 800,000 to account for parade watchers on rooftops and inside buildings.”
Which brings us to Evert’s numbers, measured using a very liberal crowd density factor.
“My figure was 216,000 people using a density of one person for every three square feet,” Evert says. “We’ve all been in elevators where everybody was jammed in like sardines – but to stand like that for two hours? Go measure an elevator and tell me if you want to stand in there for a couple hours with 15 of your closest friends…But 800,000 people is total bullshit. I got 167,000 at the parade and another 60,000 at Union Station and on the lawn. That’s 216,000 and that was extremely generous.”
A more conservative/realistic density factor would have put Evert’s overall count at around 170,000 and change. And were he forced to place an over/under bet using a figure of 150,000, without question he’d opt for the under.
“So how could I be wrong by 400 percent using Jacobs Method?” Evert asks. “They’re saying the crowd was almost 400 percent larger than I estimated. If anything, I’d be more likely to be wrong by overestimating.”
The bottom line:
“Look, it was a huge crowd – maybe the biggest Kansas City’s ever seen. I don’t want to be a spoiler because it was a great event. But the truth is important and if people get away with stretching the truth about things like this, the next thing you know, they’ll be telling us that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.”
As for Hernandez being guilty of putting out a wildly exaggerated crowd estimate, “I can assure you we had no intention of doing that,” he says. “Here’s our thing; it was a great party and that’s what’s important to us.”
Amen….almost!
So how does Kansas City Star editor Mike Fanin explain the rationale of allowing practically everybody in the new game at 18th and Grand to report the Royals crowd as being between 500,000 and 800,000 without so much as questioning how the numbers were arrived at? Seriously, Fanin was an editor over the FYI section when I busted the Plaza and established that there was no such thing as “official police estimates” for large crowds.
You guessed it, no comment from the dude with twin DUIs and an assault conviction.
You’re two days late. TKC already did this story twice. Twitter and Fox sports too.
Sure they did, Greedo…
Do you even know how to read? TKC merely stated that a count of one million was horseshit – nothing whatsoever to back it up – and who said anything about a million people to begin with?
Hollow statements and a sprinkling of anonymous comments with no response back from the city and the person who put out the 800,000 number to begin with.
Hey,feel free to stick with “news light” and continue to share your uninformed opinions here!
Interesting, Greedo.
Did you bother to tell Tony I wrote the Sprint story on October 30th and it took him until November 5th to do a cut and paste of what I said? Or is it just anything that goes on over at TKC, in that grease laden, bottom feeding slime fest fit your world view, but you have to rush over here and scold Hearne for any non-reason possible?
Tony has spanked the $hit out of the “crowd story” since he’s anti everything. At least it drug him off of 5 more toy train stories in a row.
Here’s what you need to understand.
TKC, with rare exceptions, appeals to a different audience. Yes, some people like Chuck, you on occasion and a handful of others read both tony and KCC, but overall, with the exception of Chuck, Tony appeals to the lowest common denominator. The down trodden, the lost, the bottom feeders of KC. Cowards like SuperDave who want to trash peoples families then run like the little B*itch he IS.
Word of that got to me, so I went over there under MY name with MY picture, offering MY contact information so anyone who wanted to find me could say those vile things to my face. Guess how many emails and calls I got? NONE.
Someone over there has decided I’m Polar Bear. Even the Polar Bear has commented saying I’m most certainly NOT him.
I don’t read that site, unless someone sends me a story that mentions me. In the two times I’ve commented, with the intent of calling out the slime, I had the balls to do it UNDER my name, WITH my picture, unlike you cowards who throw rocks from the dark, safety of anonymity. Yeah, you’re a big tuff guy, like all the rest. But when confronted, not even the nerve to EMAIL threats to me.
Those games aren’t played here at KCC.
Those aren’t the comments that appear here.
This is a far more educated discussion with people who care about the news; not a non-stop racist rant with losers as the primary audience. We have Harley, that’s all we contend with in the “nasty human” department. You and your ilk make up the majority of his readership.
Never would I think I’d say I’m grateful we have HARLEY, but if the tradeoff is for the commenters here looking like 90% of TKC’s readership, we’ll proudly keep Harley as our one, medicated troll.
I’m not so sure Harley is on his meds, Wilson! But it was a breakthru earlier this week when he agreed with Hearne. Of course that will not last. But i enjoyed it.
Harley scolds Hearne and you for actually working during the day. That is pathetic on his part. As many know, Hearne does not HAVE to work, so I respect that he he does drive from Lawrence to Topeka, and is selling cars. BMW’s and those pesky VW’s with their lying ass air bag controversy. And, natch, since the end of the month is a busy time in the Car Bidness, Hearne was understandably several days late on this expected rant about crowd size for the parade. Tony stole his thunder there, yes this post was stale. And without a real COUNTER, like Hearne used for his Plaza takedown, just opinion. From a guy in a Topeka diner.
Blogging is a hobby. Let’s all play nice in this fort.
Correct. Harley complimented me as well, then woke up on the manic side of his disorder, stating I was a loser for the Mayor knowing my name, because Harley is HUUUUUGE. He’s worked for the Clintons, for Gods sake!
And as a commenter pointed out, Harlot is another no name with no proof of anything so he’s a moot point – a non factor.
I found it a funny read when the commenter told him, working as a campaign volunteer in Raytown doesn’t put you on the Clinton staff. And, also, he now claims to be working with sports stars and MVP’s! That makes three careers for his anonymous azz. Medicine, law and sports! He’s a bizzy man.
But still has time to comment 15 times on each story saying the same thing each time. Yes, he’s a creative genius.
I’ll just sit back and wait for my new, black Benz to arrive from Ft Laudedale and go sell more boxes. Section 8 rent don’t pay itself, ya know.
Wow, if that fuker only knew…
tracy…you’re new here so you need to learn about the
magnificent Harley
Yes..I’m opinionated…I have deep feelings about many
things…mostly the charities I work for who get
millions of dollars worth of merchandise every year
because of Harleys work.
I agree when I agree…I disagree with facts when I
disagree….but I know more than most of the people
having been around this city all my life.
I did not make fun of hearne for working…its just
when vw got caught it wasfunny that he was working
selling their cars.
Hearne and I go way back…had dinners at
union station several times at rod’s place. But hearne
could do better. Lovd his columnin the star…bcause
he mentioned me several times. I
m anonymous because of my business and my opinions.
Me and wislon go way back.
been to 6 super bowls…was on the filed twice wit
the teams I worked with…..and I know everyone
of the major players in the city
I still work with mvp’s…hall of famers…and many
highly place political people.
I jump on glaze because he’s out of his league while
at the same time luv the guy for his never say die
attitude. H’es like a cat…nine live…and love his
flower pot bread.
Truth is tracy….is know you too. Remember you topless on vacation. hahahahahahahaha!
As far as wilsons comment about Clinton…I did meet
him in 1976 when jimmy carter stayed at my best
friends house in pv when running for prez. Bill was
in town and we met.
In fact…and I can prove this…bill did inhale…on top
of the old brookside theatre roof…I was there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And if you don’t believe this…just bring your 10 k
to the arbitrator ….we[ll put up cash…and see who’s
the real liar…
Yes….not a lawyer…not in medicine…but a successful
businessman who stared with nothing.
the bear must have gottn some money from momma
because selling boxes doesn’t pay so well.
and tracy..again…keep your top on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
fyi tracy…Harley picked the perfect numbers for
the 2012 election…stay tuned and i’lldo the
same in this next election.
Harley has been on target 100 per cent.
don’t doubt Harley…he is the man with the plan.
see ya at crown center tonight!
I’m not playing with breaking news on the crowd count.
To merely come out immediately and say I thought it was bogus would have been meaningless. What’s the point?
To do a careful study, report on the poor reporting by other media (which entails letting them first report) and then track down the people behind the bogus counts and expose their fraud, that’s making news and breaking news.
Pretty simple, really.
For the record, Hearne actually went into my comment and deleted sentences he did not agree with! Even tho they are factually true, which he admits. He phoned to tell me so!
Aw, Hearne, getting a bit touchy here before he turns 65 on Jan. 9th.
This from the man who refused to delete my story posts, which my lawyer requested, when I was involved in the telescoping ladder lawsuit for five years. So, Hearne, how about you stop pretending you “don’t know how” to edit posts or comments, and take my name off the sidebar.
Now get busy, you only have 55 days left to sign up for mandatory Medicare.
Tracy Thomas, JoCoPost.com and KcmoPost.com
Wow–this comment is still up! The car business must be very busy. OK, everyone, write it down before he deletes this: Hearne’s AARP birthday is Jan. 9, 2016.
But alas, where shall we party?
Beena’s jazz joint is closed. We could go back to the Conspiracy Bar at Larry Sells’ Uptown Theatre. How about it, Sells? We need a signature drink. You boys chime in here, since you know spirits far better than I do. What would go well with vanilla Ensure? Grey Goose? Or is Popov OK? I’m not sure where the Social Security Office is in Lawrence. The one I went to to register was in Lenexa, on Twilight Lane. Gotta love that irony.
TKC is Jerry Springer. KCC is Days of Our Lives, or any other soap opera with the over the top drama and drama queeens
And you’re a consumer of both! I’ll take that.
Thanks for being a fan.
I rarely go to TKC. The setup seems too jumbled. And the tits on every story, regardless of what the story is about, might pull your chronic masterbator into visiting the site daily. But I don’t care for Tony too much.
Thanks, HC.
Can’t…stop…yawning…
Getting tired of people complaining about crowd numbers at a championship rally like its real news.
When legend because fact, you print the legend. Legend is 800,000 was there. So it doesn’t matter how many words your write saying the opposite. It’s just going to fall on deaf ears.
Wow, intellectualism at its finest!
Thanks Word
Fifty years from now the majority of this town will still say and think 800,000 was there. So, what’s the point of trying to diprove it?
Guess what, the majority of people still think Billy The Kid was left handed.
That’s one way to look at it, Word…
But in point of fact, history is often revised to be more accurate than what was incorrectly reported originally.
Take weapons of mass destruction in Iraq…is this your way of telling me you still believe that still, too?
WMD vs. Parade Attendance? Bush lied about both?
If we are printing the legend let’s put the estimate at something completely stupid- 5 Million people at the parade!
5 Million! Wooooooooo!
Got to back Hearne on this one…his numbers make sense, the Mayors and others don’t..we don’t have that many cars or adults in the metro, hah…half are kids and older folks who couldn’t or wouldn’t go and don’t have cars…so 800 thousand is impossible…200 to 300 thousand makes sense..and is a fantastic crowd biggest ever…but you’re right not about numbers its about feelings.
I go both ways, Craig…
Numbers and feelings
YES ….we were told you went both ways on everything.
And who cares except for papa hearne who’s so into this
little detail he can’t let it go.
who cares if it was 600,000….or 1,000… it was the largest
crowd ever…so let it be.
I’m sure glaze was watching on his black and white tv on the
banana crate watching the show of fans.
I mean relaly is this an important issue or what.
Only hearne cares…use the google app and count each one
of them.
y ou’ve got nothing to do anyway.
are you trying to ask Hearne out on a date? Harley you devil
hey glaze you make no sense. But that’s not
unusual.
Most people couldn’t say because people were
coming from the plaza ..walking from kemper..
it was just way too spread out.
And compared to your other comments ,,iteappera the evil lying vw people aren’t selling
much product theses days. another losing proposition.
And yes…the media has been clamoring to
know was it 100k/400k/800k…but until you
get your professor to figure it out we’ll never
really know…itswhat legends are made of.
So glaze…I don’t date women who sleep arounlike you do. The most men they sleep
with the better chance you have of a one night
stand.
Wow!
Another bolt of enlightenment from the Man With No (Real) Name, Harley.
Who cares if it was 600,000 or 1,000? Oh, I dunno, maybe everybody who has been running around panting about how many people were there.
So that would appear to be a lot.
As for whether you care or not, my dear man…
Do I care?
Is there a wall around the metro that I don’t know about. I agree that there weren’t 800,000 at the parade, but to say that because there aren’t x amount of people in the metro, therefore it’s impossible for there to be x amount of people at a event suggests that your ability to think is juuust a bit outside.
Careful Craig, let’s not go down this path…
I might hit my head and say, “Yes!”
Nice (sarcasm) to see that you once again found a way to mention Fannin’s run-ins with the law. Yawn.
Glad you were able to stay awake long enough to choke out this brilliant comment, Jayhawk!
800,000 is nuttin’… the Mets had close to 2,000,000 people in attendance Tuesday at their co-share MLB ‘World Championship’ celebration in NY…
2015* co-asterisk winners Mets/Royals
🙂
Kerouac’s Retirement Plan:
___ Golf
___ Fishing
___ Gardening
___ Travel
___ Philanthropy
_X_ Troll the internet every waking hour
I had no idea I was there either.
There was a headline on Yahoo that said everybody in Kansas City was at the parade. Hearne, can you do your research and find out if I was there? This is extremely important stuff and it needs the attention of someone of your caliber.
For someone of your caliber, Frank?
Nah, sorry
Some blog posted a rally from the 1920s/30s at the station from a similar vantage point as those “800,000”-photos. I believe it was a Star or Tribune photo captioned 170,000-crowd.
CG calling the parade/event Kansas City’s finest hour is truly sad. Sadder than Kerouac’s Where-ever-they-land Chargers.
Yes, but people (especially their heads) are much fatter today and body-wise they look 3x as wide, especially in Kansas City…
🙂
Lmao😂
5 Million cudchewers!
If every person at the parade were stretched out from the tips of their fingers to the tips of their toes, they would stretch a long, long way. How long? We haven’t figured that out yet, but we are working on it. We hit a snag as far as how many midgets were actually in the crowd. (Midget might be politically incorrect, but if Johnny Gomes is a hero, so am I) You’ll want to stay tuned. This is a DEVELOPING STORY.
if there were 300k bears that would stretch from kc to garden city..
the guys a pig!
It was a great day for the city; that’s my focus.
+1
I was there and the total number of participants doesn’t matter to me.
It was just enough of my fellow Kansas Citians to make my day both extremely chaotic and absolutely exhilarating.
Go Royals!
The season is over, ya mook. There are no Royals to “Go” for three more months.
I could link you the contract moves on Davis and Escobar that the Royals made just today, and then explain how Moore’s GM moves are one of the most important reasons that the team has been so competitive, and why one would support and root for that in the offseason but why waste the time. This is obviously not your sport. Yet, you keep commenting on it.
What would be the fun of being a fan of a team if there weren’t people who hated them.
800,000 is certainly a tough figure to swallow. That would be like one-and-a-half Woodstocks assuming *that* event had 500,000 at its height (which I don’t).
Still, those photos are pretty impressive.
In mayor’s best interests to claim more than the projected 200K they expected. He needs an excuse for the shitty shuttle situation. (And if there were even 200K at the parade and Union Station, I’d venture to bet there were that many again trying to find a parking spot who didn’t make it.)
While 800K is obviously high, 216K seems pretty damn low. You’re telling me there was only 3 Arrowheads worth of people there?
Actually, what he’s telling you is 216,000 was very generous and probably the number was under 150,000.
That Union Station pic and Liberty Memorial crowd show is 60,000 -mand that’s the most impressive pic of all!
I come to this site from time to time for some gossip and commentary. But this endless complaining about anonymous comments is SO FREAKING OLD. Glazer and Wilson you contribute to a site that receives thousands of hits per day your going to get comments that are outrageous, hateful, personal and you need to get the F over it. Yea they are going to talk about your wife, your dog, your mother et al. GET OVER IT or stop contributing to the mass media. Congrats Paul and Glazer you use your real name and so am I it makes no damn difference because neither you nor them are going to meet up somewhere and “work it out”. At first 2 grown men trying to out p1ss each other was rather entertaining now it is childish BS and if you as an author can’t take the outrageous aspects of the internet then turn off your computer and shut the F up. Seriously your no different than the “haters” since your feeding the frenzy. Plus it sounds like everyone knows who’s saying what and nobody has went and confronted their attacker which makes you just as big a coward as the commenters. The internet is outrageous, informative, provocative, insane, and many things most of which is not true and your ego’s only prove your as childish and self-centered as the haters. The harder you fight against it the more true the comments appear.
Damn straight! In case you’re wondering, this isn’t my real name.
Talk about literally pissing on someone’s parade. Who cares if there was 800k or just Hearn, Harley, and Glazer out there? It was a great day for Kansas City and a great day for Royal’s fans. The negativity in the world is getting to be a little much, why cannot the good that happens just be the story? Getting old.
Seriously, Jess?
Who cares? For starters each and everybody who fabricated the numbers to begin with, the local media that hopped mindlessly on the bandwagon and last but not least…uh, you!
It’s the standard for Hearne. Someone dies instead of paying tribute, pay disrespect. Something positive happens seek out and report the negativity. Pretty typical for today’s biased journalists.
I’ll go 5-600,000, but the figures in this story are laughable….one person for every three square feet? I don’t thing so. try at least 2 per……..