Lefsetz: Sizing Up the Winners & the Losers

AOL

Makes online easy.

But it turns out online is much more than their walled garden and that cable and telephone companies utilize pricing pressure to get people to sign up for a bundle that includes internet access. Turns out that access is king. All of AOL’s content was no match for high speed access to everything.

AOL survives as a lame portal that gets way too much attention from Wall Street. And if you’ve got AOL e-mail, switch immediately. The truth is you’re missing out on so many messages, with AOL’s spam filters so tight and ever-changing.

GOOGLE

Made search work.

Create comprehension from chaos, make the world understandable and usable for a huge swath of people and you’ll get rich.

But you won’t stay rich. In mobile, search is secondary, it’s all about the app.

But what is most interesting about Google is it got a pass. Utilizing its mantra of “Don’t be evil” to market itself as a new kind of company (that only lasted until earnings faltered), Google’s history is about the public and press giving it a chance when it does not deserve one. Sure, Google gave us Gmail, a slightly better Hotmail, but it makes no money on YouTube, Google Plus is an invasive disaster and Google Glass was a sideshow that got a ton of publicity while WhatsApp and Snapchat got all the glory.

Just because someone is good at one thing, don’t assume they’re good at everything. Furthermore, just because someone is rich, that doesn’t make them smart and indomitable.

EVAN SPIEGEL

Who?

He’s Mr. Snapchat, who’s now a billionaire.

It’s easy to be a one trick pony. But now Spiegel has pivoted Snapchat into a content company, something prognosticators did not foresee, increasing dramatically the value of the enterprise. Like Mark Zuckerberg before him, Spiegel refused to sell out at a low price, he believed in himself and his vision. Those who take the short money, however large, are losers.

MARK ZUCKERBERG

Facebook is an advertising company, not a social network. After his HTML5 mistake, Zuckerberg pivoted and made Facebook the king of mobile advertising. It’s like a klezmer band deciding it’s better to make pop music. Well, a very successful klezmer band. Proving, even if the Winklevosses came up with the idea, they never could have turned Facebook into the juggernaut it has become.

TAYLOR SWIFT

Realized to win big today it’s about marketing. Tunes are essential, but with it being so hard to reach everybody, he or she who owns the marketing skills becomes known worldwide. Assuming this is your desire…

KANYE

Is so busy complaining he forgot it’s about music. Taylor Swift, his nemesis, never forgot that music comes first.

BILLBOARD CHART

Once you manipulate the statistics, you’re history.

We don’t want formula, we want easily understandable facts. Which is why YouTube views and Spotify listens are so valuable. Once you start weighting, people’s eyes glaze over and they tune out.

AMAZON

It just works and it’s trustworthy.

Hate Jeff Bezos all you want, but who else do you trust? Bezos always put the customer first, and then he sold them more things. It’s like Walmart with its low prices but with even more. If you hate Amazon you don’t use it.

COSTCO

Part of the fabric of America.

Sold by its users. Not everything can be delivered by UPS or FedEx. Costco is about high quality, low prices and treating its workers and customers right. Rep is everything today. And he who forgets this ultimately loses. Sure, prices are low at Walmart, but not only does the Bentonville giant kill downtowns dead, they put their employees on welfare. Furthermore, Walmart was so inured to their profits they could not see the future, i.e. the Internet coming. You’re never the winner forever. Sleep with one eye open. Always.

ELON MUSK

PayPal was not sexy, but it laid the foundation for Mr. Musk’s reputation.

We all need people to believe in, heroes shall we say. They used to be musicians, because they spoke the truth and were beholden to no one. But musicians have been devalued because their me-too music is bland and they’re whored out to corporations, the enemy in the public’s mind, bitching all the while. Whereas techies strike off into the wilderness and come back with gold. They innovate and titillate us and we believe in them. If you’re not doing something different, if you’re not reinventing the wheel, stop making music, we’ve got no time for you.

MICROSOFT

Yesterday’s king, today’s common man.

Everybody peaks, nothing is forever. People are gunning for your throne. And the more you’re invested in the way you’re doing things, the more vulnerable you become. Disruption is easier with digital tools. Therefore, you must disrupt yourself. But it’s hard for the rich and comfortable to do this.

BILLIONAIRES

Money used to be inherited, now it’s usually made.

We must educate our young rich to give back. Many of them do.

POLITICS

An inside game of gotcha that’s so ridiculous, that only serves the insiders and the corporations who pay for it, that the public has tuned out.

Ask not what your government can do for you, it’s too busy doing it for itself. (No, this is not right wing pabulum. The government should employ more people, it should enhance the safety net, but the poor don’t serve and they’ve got no voice and you can vote all you want, but the gerrymandering and corporate donations mean the game is stacked against you. The whole country is stacked against you unless you’re smart and educated, so you can’t bitch unless you have a degree and understand the landscape, which rules out so many.)