It’s almost over…
And I have no idea who is going to win, so here’s my best analysis of how Mitt Romney becomes the 45th President of the United States of America.
He starts with a 191 electoral votes towards the 270 needed to win- per the RealClearPolitics projections. The President has 201 “in the bag,” so to speak.
That leaves 146 electoral votes up for grabs from the following States: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).
Of those final 11 States, I’m confident that Romney takes North Carolina, Virginia and the Jews and Cubans are going to drag him across the finish line in Florida.
That’s another 57 electoral votes for Romney, for a total of 248. The President is going to take Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. So another 32 to the President, for a total of 233.
That leaves five States and 69 Electoral Votes left to fight over.
Colorado: Now has more registered Republicans than Democrats, giving the early voting edge to the Republicans. The wild card being the Marijuana Legalization initiative, where the President’s broken promises towards calling the war of
f on medical marijuana will decimate his voters amongst the “Stoner Class” which is a huge voting block in Colorado.
These votes will probably go to Gary Johnson, effectively costing Obama the State and its 9 Electoral Votes.
Iowa: This is where this mess begins and it plays a part in the end. There’s a lot of “buyer’s remorse” in a State that the President won comfortably in 2008. For what its worth, all my friends in Iowa are gonna vote for Obama again. Being around so much corn must make you liberal. Combined with the ethanol vote, Obama wins these six EV’s.
New Hampshire: Will the “Live Free or Die” State vote for the President who makes W look like a piker where infringing civil liberties are concerned? I don’t think so. Four more EV’s for Romney.
Pennsylvania: Normally a reliable Democrat State, a Republican hasn’t won there since “George the Elder” in ’88. The wild card here is Republican Governor Tom Corbett, who won by 55-45 in the 2010 election and only lost four counties.
He knows how to beat Democrats, enjoys a lot of popularity and Romney inherits his ground game. The pro-coal western part of the State should turn out in droves for Romney and he
should do well in the Philly suburbs. Romney 50.1 to 49.9 – 20 more
EV’s for the Governor.
Ohio: The ads Obama’s been running against Romney about the auto bailout have been very effective. The President has also been campaigning there like his life depends on it, and he’s right.
I don’t see how Obama has a chance at a second term without Ohio.
Early voting for Democrats is down and Republican numbers are up. I’m really grabbing
at straws here and the State is a hotbed of voter fraud on all sides, but I’m going to give the edge to the President, 50.1 to 49.9, and he wins
its 18 EV’s.
Final: Romney 281- Obama 257
Final Note- Senate 53-47 Democrat Majority & the Reps gain one more seat in the House- padding their majority.
wrong again sir….will be giving my final analysis after the election
on thursday.
go to law4life1000@yahoo.com to regiser for my online news conference.
oh and exquire….i hope you keep posting on kcc. We need some good
debates here…even if you’re wrong…its still fun to have soeone
from the other side of the aisle who is writing here.
good day.
EXQUIRE…would love to see your take on the election…can’t wait…
.where did you get these numbers?
do you really think romney wins ohio? pennsylvania….?
pennsylvania is a lost cause…remember in 2008 mccain tried the same b.s.
thing…won’t happen……its not close in pennsylvania and if romney loses
that state too he’s lost the election…
AS FAR AS PENNSYLANI…DID YOU SEE THAT OBAMA DID NOT
EVEN CAMPAIGN THERE…HE’S UP AT LEAST 5-6 POINTS ………………………………………….WITHOUT OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
ROMNEY HAS no WAY TO VICTORY…according to your math.
WILL you take my bet….if romney wins i’m off kcc…if obama wins you
don’t come back to kcc?
got any guts?
in other words winey…put up or shut up…
expect to hear from you by noon today….
or are you not willing to bakc up your words……………………….i don’t
think youreally belive what you’re saying or you’ll take me up on this bet…
Nate silver say s 314…i said in august 303-323…..i think you’ll be crying
on wednesday…
should be fun….!!!!!!!!!
Again anything can happen, those fools in Vegas have Obama this morning at 5-1 as I thought. Yesterday morning it was 3 1/2 to one for the prez…but what do they know…right?
Isn’t 3.5:1 more favorable than 5:1? Money must be coming in on Romney
We all know Vegas is never wrong about anything.
mike where ya been buddy…hiding?
its over for you and your repub buddies…
GET READY FOR THE MULE KICK OF THE CENTURY!
actually glad to have you back…
who else would write such eloquent pieces?
I never have said I knew for sure who was going to win. I think we may not even know until tomorrow morning. You have really gone out on a limb. Are you going to be on here tomorrow if you are wrong? I hope so!
i was 100% right on the winner and the
electoral vote range..
and i’m on here..and other national blogs..
but where are you mikey…
come on …admit you were wrong on thes
issues and the predictions.
i respect good losers…
I was wrong thinking Romney was going to pull out the election. That does not, however, mean I am wrong on the issues. I am not going to change my views based on what other people voted for in the election. I have a mind of my own.
Congratulations. I hope he does better than I think he will.
Glazer, you see the price of precious metals today? Spike in gold/silver tells me Barry has this thing wrapped up
A spike in gold and silver usually means people are pessimistic about the economy. Do you think people are buying it because they are scared Obama is going to win?
Yes
i[m sure donkey punch is a huge investor in gold and silver…
so i think he knows what he’s talking about…yes.
This morning CNN predicted Obama will win, they have him with more than 290 electoral votes. Again they could be wrong.
We may not actually know until tomorrow morning. As we all know, there is only one poll that actually counts.
…hmmm, actually, your scenio makes sense. I hope you’re correct.
Mr. Harley and Mr. Craig, your steadfastness in light of your neurological myopathy is inspiring. God’s blessings and wisdom I wish for you.
I’d say the odds are 2:1 this country continues to go downhill regardless of who wins the election. We’ve reached the tipping point, so it’s simply a question of which party can do the best job of keeping us from acquiring third-world status for as long as possible. Settle your accounts if you’re so inclined, but by all means just make sure you’re “prayed up”.
+1
The flaw in some of these polls is the oversampling of democrats using a model based on 2008. In doing so, they were way off on the 2010 elections and the Scott Walker recall election. Instead of changing the ratios of democrats to republicans to reflect the 2010 turnout, they are still using the 2008 model. Because of this, Dick Morris and Karl Rove both believe that Romney will carry the swing states that are polling close. It will be interesting to see what happens.
wrong mikey….nate silver wan’t off in 2010 or 2008..
but he says obama landslide over romney….
scott walker was not indicative of wisconsin since many democrats
voted for walker because they didn’t like the recall matter…
and there 4 million more hispanics registedc this year…
get ready…………………………………..
Morris and Rove, although you don’t agree with their politics are no idiots either. Both have sucessfully run campaigns.
As far as the Scott Walker thing goes, whatever the reason, the polls were wrong.
At this point a guess, even an educated one is still a guess. We will see who is right very soon.
morris said romney in a landslide…he’s the worst
political pundit ever..
rove…not so dumb..talked a bunch of old rich
billionaires to invest in his scheme …it didn’t
wrok …now they want their money back…he’s
out of the circuit…not real bright…wrong guy
on the way down..but i’m sure he made a boat
load of money off those stupid billionaires…
they shoudl keep to biz..not politicis…
People tend to think who they want to win will win.
*** ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 ***
+1
323….thats the number mikey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Come on back and eat your crow, nitwit.