College football and the NFL are in full swing this weekend…
I’ll begin posting my picks each week for selected games. Allow me to explain. Instead betting on games where the match ups are almost a coin flip, I’ll look for mismatches that give you a greater chance to win.
Many of you will no doubt be disappointed when local college teams or the Chiefs are not part of my equation. While betting with your neighbor or your pals at work is kind of okay, serious betting is generally illegal.
Therefore I suggest that if you are really gonna risk more than a few bucks that you make your bets live and in person in places where gambling is legal like Las Vegas, Reno or Atlantic City. Lots of people bet online, but remember, this is generally illegal too.
And maybe a bigger issue with on-line betting is you have no recourse if they choose to fold their tent and not pay out. When you check into these on-line services you often see that they’re generally out of the country with home bases in South America or something. Now that you have my disclaimer, let the games begin.
As we enter the second week in college football, we’ve already seen a pretty big separation between the top teams and everyone else. And as you recall, I use the teaser system quite often.
I’ll explain.
If you pick two different teams – college or pro – in two different games, you;re allowed to adjust the point spread by six points either way.
But you have to win both games to win.
If you tie and win one, in most cases that is a push or no bet. However, I’ve noticed some online places and sports books in Vegas consider a tie a loss. Make sure you get the answer to this question before you place your bet.
The tease is most effective when powerhouse teams like Alabama or Ohio State are huge favorites over nobodies. Too often a team like Alabama will be a 30 point favorite over a weaker team but not cover the spread. Say Alabama is a thirty point favorite over Kansas, it’s safer to move the betting line down six just in case Alabama puts in the second and third string players late in the game and blows the spread.
Another key element is the money line.
Let’s say we like Kansas City over the Jaguars but the spread is 4 1/2 half points with the Chiefs as the favorite. It’s generally prudent to take the favorite even up, no points given.
And this really comes into play when you have to give up over 3 points in a game like this where the Chiefs are an average team playing a really bad team like the Jaguars. So if you take the money line and have the Chiefs even, you would have bet $140 to win $100. So if KC wins by a field goal which is only three points, you still win. You win less money, but you still win.
Now on to the games!
College Football:
MU (-10) over Toledo
Oregon (-18) over Virginia…this is a tease bet
Michigan (-4) over Notre Dame
NFL:
New England (-4) over Buffalo
Colts (-4) over Raiders…this also is a tease bet.
Tampa Bay (-4) over the New York Jets
KC Chiefs (+2) over Jags
Houston (+2) over the Chargers…this is a tease.
Enjoy your football weekend. I’ll be in Vegas enjoying mine.
8 point spread, with the Ravens and Broncos tonight.
Ravens gotta cover.
🙂
Chuck I like Denver -71/2…same team plus Welker, I know they are missing two D guys..Baltimore has ten new guys too much..no weapons…I don’t see it…we’ll see, weird year, same quarterbacks on most teams but lots of new guys, more than normal hard to call…I see it Denver 32 Baltimore 21
🙂
WEll Chuck see what I mean.
Ha!
🙁
I went to sleep at half time thinking I was up.
Good call. I didn’t see the 2nd half, will read about it tomorrow.
Do ya still not like the Chiefs for the over?
🙂
Here was what most thought about Denver’s Tight End before last night.
“Broncos tight end Julius Thomas has just one catch in two NFL seasons, but will be thrown into the fire Thursday against the Ravens in Week 1. Thomas has already been named the starter at tight end, with Joel Dreessen out with an injury and Jacob Tamme sliding down the depth chart.
He could have a tough go of it in his first game, as the Broncos’ tight ends did not manage much success against the Ravens last season. The Broncos put up just 12 combined Fantasy points over two games against the Ravens, who were right in the middle of the pack overall when it came to defending tight ends last season. Baltimore held tight ends to 6.6 Fantasy points per game, good for 13th-lowest in the league.”
The dude was a late 4th round pick (Why even then?) out of Portland State, where he only played college in his senior year and had 2, count ’em, 2 TDs.
The Broncos get what looks like the next coming of Antonio Gates the same week we finally try to forget Tony in the Tub Moeaki.
That Tight End was tough.
🙁
Chiefs are attempting their own version of this type of Tony G./Gates/Graham/now Thomas experiment with 6-7, 230 lb Demetrius Harris, who played college basketball exclusively while at UW-Milwaukee. More of a long-term project as he hasn’t even played football since high school (was recruited by Arkansas St. though, but grades kept him out), but with the success of those mentioned earlier along with some flashes that he displayed during camp, Chiefs could possibly have themselves a potential TE gem down the line.
“Ravens gotta cover”
– Close; Ravens were looking for ‘cover’, as in someplace too ‘duck and’… 49-27 and it should’ve been 56-27, save for Broncos LB Trevathan’s latter-day Dave Smith mimic/redux, flashback Steelers vs Chiefs 1971.
Manning ’13 is KC’s Montana ’94… each QB came close the prize season before – year two Manning portends curtains – ringed retirement or carted off Canton otherwise, wearing traction.
A few off-season changes aside, was the ‘Superbowl Champion’ Ravens defense getting lit up, not the Chiefs swiss-cheese brand… and to think the Broncos did it sans Von Miller (what it’s worth, Denver’s radio announcers were referencing the fact Baltimore looked winded courtesy the high altitude environ, in addition to the high octane Bronco assault.)
~ Chiefs vs Jaguars?
Damn the prognosticators: Kerouac sees a KC blowout victory, or Jacksonville win narrow margin – be no in between. Which tells me what I already know… have no idea what type team the Chiefs have 2013. A loss would tell me more than a W, however.
Oh great now we have to see this on KCC and TKC both. Hearne, why don’t you and Tony just do it all on the same website together then no duplicating needed.
The ethics of journalism do not allow you to sell the same story to different publications.
It is called First Rights, not the same as Miranda Rights with which The Scribbler might be familiar.
I really miss Smartman now.
F#%k me, I’m so glad I’m dead and don’t have to read this; Id kill myself!
Heh
How long in this article will it take before the Glazed one decides he wants to fight somebody? Any bets on the over/under?
At least on Tony’s comments don’t go missing. I was going to reply to a comment earlier today regarding Glazer’s being a drug dealer. Hearne replies to that one that Glazer was absolved of that. I was going respond that Glazer entered a guilty plea federal court and was convicted previously. The whole back and forth were gone. Glaze got slaps on the wrist both times, but that is not an absolution.
Let’s see how long this lasts before being deleted.
Punk drunk Bubba THE JUDGE SAID GLAZE SOLD NOTHING HE JUST USED COKE…HE DOESN’T EVEN DESERVE TO BE ARRESTED, OR CHARGED. I HAD TO MAKE THE PLEA TO AVOIDE A 250 THOUSAND DOLLAR JURY TRIAL IN EXCHANGE SHE LET ME GO…the US Attorney said “we made a mistake, he sold nothing our informants lied” they flunked the lie detector…not that you care jerk off. Was in the paper and on the record…
In a court room guilty is guilty, rather you get it via a jury or by plea bargaining.
Yep, guilty is guilty.
But the truth or honesty doesn’t mean much to you so what does it matter?
Caps mean you are yelling. Must have got to you. I love yanking you chain. You have about as much bite as your dog.
You took a plea one time. The other time appealed and made a deal because the state’s case was not solid enough to make worth the fight to them, so you got slapped on the wrist. What part of this is not factual?
There are 1000’s of people who in the 80’s and 90’s got convicted on federal drug charges and are just coming out off doing 20 years, for doing nothing more than you did. You got lucky and you are white.
I personally have no problem with you helping out your VIP’s get the party favors. That was the norm at the time. Just don’t tell me you were absolved.
Look, you guys have a point somewhat. The 2001 case was all done to stop me from running for mayor of Kansas City. My father replaced me and was nominated. I had announced it in the paper. The mayor was scared to even debate me, thinking I’d poke tons of fun at her, she was kinda right, Kay Barnes. So her powerful group looked into the ‘he parties’ attack…got the feds involved and after more than a year of wire taps and informants they had nothing. Just the word of dealers who informed on me. They sold me small amounts of stuff and turned it into more so they could get a sentence cut…I barely knew them outside of “hey Jose can you stop by with a bump bag” they got a few bucks or concert tix or both…hey you are right again it was the big party days back then, 80’s/90’s who didn’t. I was in the biz and also had been in Hollywood for years…the norm..by the way the judge even said that, she understood..still its a technical foul..by using and letting your girlfriend or buddy do a line, you are by the letter of law guilty of distributorship…they, the feds, not the judge, went that way in the end, didn’t sell anything but shared..there were no big parties or large amounts, grams…only..weekend warriors..hey you see them on rehab or in films joking about how high they got last night on blow or weed or both and booze…so I am as guilty as that long list…millions of people
I should never have been arrested, but once they messed up and did it, they had to have something..my lawyer said they will bring all your girlfriends up on the stand to say when you had sex you got high and it was usually yours…get it, an old jury, a 21 year old girl who is dating a 46 year old man..not good…I become the bad guy…so the deal was made to plead and walk. They won, I was knocked out of the race before it got really going so enter Stan. Man he almost won, so who knows what I could have done.
What I did was wrong, but understandable…I didn’t have to give up anyone, I didn’t know anything I was the bottom of the chain, usually called the victim..
Now with my past exploits the feds had not forgotten I was not their fav…and that would have come in too…so you see the problem, has it been one of you, the not guilty was highly likely with me who knows…and guilty meant several years in prison by the guidelines..if you go to trial…sure I wanted to fight it further, but this was the safest and smartest action…
Again we had tons of letters from people like Buck O’neil to David Brenner backing me to the court, that helped alot. Plus all I had done for KC charities etc…the judge really felt kinda bad for me and wanted to help me..
So there it is there and almost all of this was in the paper and on tv and radio when it ended…its just not as sexy as Glazer got ten years…you see.
So I became the poster boy in KC for partying and using blow..unfair but ask Charlie Sheen about that…guys like him in Hollywood in the biz are almost the majority at some point, the big names stick out and get the attention…the list of big users in entertainment was miles long, no surprise. That’s the story.
PS as in the book, I robbed dealers but didn’t deal and in the 70’s it was almost all weed not blow. That was not a biggy in the early 70’s not yet.
Back in the day, there were very few folks out and about in this town who, in my opinion, were not occasionally breaking the law with drugs and booze.
I am guilty as hell.
My 1st birthday party.
http://www.guysmith.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/judgemental.jpg
bubba…lets put it this way.
who give a f*ck…that was decades ago.
you still living in the 90’s bubba?
you still thinking we’re going to go back
to a situation that happened a long long long
time ago.
What causes you to care what happened to
a man you do not know and probably would
never meet….
how stupid are you bubba?
Punk drunk Bubba THE JUDGE SAID GLAZE SOLD NOTHING HE JUST USED COKE…HE DOESN’T EVEN DESERVE TO BE ARRESTED, OR CHARGED. I HAD TO MAKE THE PLEA TO AVOIDE A 250 THOUSAND DOLLAR JURY TRIAL IN EXCHANGE SHE LET ME GO…
Simple having cocaine is a felony. So you got the stupidest judge in world or you are small fry they don’t care about.
You can’t have it both way’s dumb fuck. Either you are an outlaw or aren’t.
Look rat, doesn’t matter what you are told, does it.
I give it two weeks and it’s cut and paste from TKC to KCC!!! The digital age it’s amazing. Makes me wonder just how “Original” these picks are???
Come on, it’s FOOTBALL guys.
We all get to BS about our home team and try to be smarter than the studs in Vegas!
🙂
I agree, chuck. Teaser bets are BS.
Straight up, no proposition stuff, I’d put my money on you over this guy any day.
And twice on Sunday.
+1
I hope ya didn’t last night, I over estimated the loss of Von Miller and, like a lot of hopeful Chiefs fans, underestimated the ageless Mr. Manning.
🙁
How good will the Broncos be as they go thru the rest of the season? Wow…
Elvis leaves the building, No Problem.
Von Miller out for 4 games, No Problem.
The one good thing about this game, is when the Chiefs play the Broncos, no one will expect us to win. I think I will schedule my tax guy that day and mow the lawn.
Sheesh…
racist chukles the sad clown..
I’m surprised you watch the nfl without
all ” those low life negroes running around
causing havoc…uneducated…causing violence
the 4th estate will write nothing about”
you’re the most disgusting individual
on earth with your hate and vile language
direct towrd anyone of a different color
than you.
I guess the old black ancwhite with the
rabbit ears picks up the games real well
and a vile racist like you loves seeing
the “negroes” destroy each other.
You’re a loser…first class…
and most importantly a hater!!!!!
harlinator, what did I say about your meds.
Please take them.
Honestly, who spews more hate and criticism than Harley, No bo dy.
like chuck…you can take his vile comments from tonys blog
and put them on hearnes.
chucks a huge mess. He can’t understand the demographic
change. He can’t figure out why African americans and
many Hispanics are doing better in life than he is.
he can’t stand it.
he just can’t handle the fact that life passed him by.
He’s so into hate that his head explodes.
Maybe that’s why he’s bald. All the heat and steam from
his angry mind has caused his hair to fall out.
or maybe he wants to look like steve Harvey!!! Haahahaha.
Hey chuckles…where’s the cash??????
If you want to see what the line is straight up just add 6 points to the team he picks in a teaser bet.
Usually he fudges and teases games ineligible to be teased and tweaks the lines to increase his win percent.
Fyi mizzou opened at minus 10 on tuesday but has expanded to minus 17 nearly everywhere. Most sportsbooks have oregon minus 23 so a teaser would give mu minus 11 and u of o minus 17.
Since here is so much line movement you should list your source for lines and time of “bet” so you cant be called out for fudging.
For example I used the median of the big 6 vegas books to find the u of o and mu lines and “bet” at 625am
Point spread no teasers
Uf minus two over miami
Houston minus 2.5 over temple
Ohio state minus 28.5 over sdsu
Nfl
Houston minus 3.5 over sd
Seattle minus 3 over carolina
Indy minus 7 over oakland
6 favorites to win by luck, although favorites tend to pay out stronger earlier in the season on average.
Happy fun bets everyone
I like all of those.
🙂
first off your numbers are way wrong..Indy is -10. Houston is -4 so on..I’m in Vegas I can read the boards…they do change but not much..teaser is available for ALL NFL BETS ALL…a fact…thank you…I’m not picking who I like I do this to show the readers a way to win money with their bets, that’s all.
As I explained before to you Tardy the Cokehead Owl, these are the mean (that means average, not what we are to you) of the Big 6 las vegas sportsbooks as available on vegasinsider.com at the time I placed the bets. Now the lines have moved but that doesn’t mean anything. Just like horseracing you get the payout or the line you get when you place the bet or in this case the ‘bet’.
When is screetch coming back to the club? I want to win a pass!
‘Tardy the Cokehead Owl’ , noice.
I like it.
Vegasinsider.com shows the big 6 odds at the 6 major vegas books. We should post em up here this year…
Hearne should do a kcc pool. Maybe we can get somma dems fancy stanfords comp tickets that are so rare as a prize. 🙂
glaze hits it…
and his haters can’t stand it…
his haters gotta tear the guy down after he hit the game…
what does he have to do?
well haters…I’ve got 10k on thhe table right now. Put up or shut
up. The balls in your court.
borrow from your piggy banks….borrow from grandmas retirement..
hell chuckles the sad ass clown go sell one of your old black and white
TV’s…
or bald guy…sell one of those “nice” chairs you make…hahahahaha
none of you got any b*lls……none of you got any backbone…just
a lot of b.s. from a bunch of losers.
glaze….watch out on mizzzouri this year…I think y ou’re gonna
besurprised….
and don’t forget Georgia…one loss early… but they’re ready for
a big season…I think bama can be beat~~~~~~~~
I thought Hearne said that he dropped Glazer in January in a previous “story” about the deceased boxer? Oh well, I guess Hearne just doesn’t have a site without Glazer.
HAHAHAHA the day my life revolves around sports I hope someone puts a bullet in my head. Any sport and most of all football.
It’s like food, a little spice helps. If ya gamble on it, it’s fun.
I get your point though.
Did anyone else notice that in all of Glazer’s picks, the team he’s picking against has had some sort of major off-season personnel change, either on the field or in the front office?
Buffalo will be starting E.J. Manuel at QB; if he gets knocked out of the game, the Bills will be led by the legendary Jeff Tuel – two guys that, at the moment, have combined to throw as many passes in the NFL as me.
Oakland’s quarterback is Terrelle Pryor, who was last seen running for his life against San Diego in last year’s season finale. He beat out Matt Flynn for the starter’s job, which ain’t saying much. So did Russell Wilson. So did Wilson Phillips. So did Nipsey Russell.
In New York, we have Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. Excuse me for a moment. Ha. Haha. Ahem. Haha ha hahahaha haha hahahahahahahaha haha. Ha. Hahahahaha hahahaha hahahaha haha ha ha ha.
Jacksonville has a new head coach, and the team STILL hasn’t decided who their starting quarterback will be.
And in San Diego, there’s a new GM, a new head coach, new coordinators, and a quarterback (Philip Rivers) whose QB rating has gone down each of the past five seasons.
Way to go out on a limb, Captain Obvi … err, Craig. You picked against arguably the five worst teams in the league with nothing more than a four-spot across the board (based on the point spreads you listed above). But since you took the time and effort to make predictions, I’ll make a few of my own.
1. I predict I’ll get up some time before 11 am Sunday.
2. I predict I’ll order a burger and at least one beer at the sports bar.
3. I predict that every game will be decided by a minimum of one point — except for those games that end in a tie.
4. I predict at least five teams will win their first game, and at least five teams will lose their first game.
5. I predict I’ll think about mowing the lawn when I get home.
There you go. Five guaranteed locks. I didn’t have to jack with the point spread or the vig; I didn’t have to pay Hearne for the publicity; and I didn’t pimp any two-bit comedy club in the process.
Good Picks I like those.
Hey MD that has no clue like Super fatso.. my job is to win, thats what I do, you are a major idiot…no I don’t pick bad teams to beat good ones, you can do that….moron.
P.S. the two bit comedy club is one of the top venues in the nation…I sleep with 9’s you sleep with your mom.
Is that 9 year olds now? I thought 19 was the youngest you would go.
are we grading on a 20 point scale? Plus is it like judging in boxing where you get one for showing up?
Damn Galzer, 9 year olds. HA!
If they can cut their own food, amirite?
here’s another one md I think you’ll do.
1. you’ll look like bad saying what you did…because its faulty thinking
Let me explain something to you….
betting is a business. and glaze handles it as such. The bets
are predicated on the knowledge of handicappers/people in
vegas who set the line.
glaze doesn’t set the lines…they’re set by others.
so when glaze picks a winner he’s betting against someone
who supposedly is much more informed /knowledgable and
focused on the game than he is.
so whether he picks easy wins…that’s 1000% smart on his
part. He’s analyzed the game. He’s come to possibly the same
conclusions as you have…that’s why he took the team he did.
We need to educate you on this entire process because you
really have little knowledge about the entire spread/betting
process. I suggest going toa betting website and learning about
the way the bets (including teasers) work.
I ts good to see new people on here…but I think glaze had
a pretty good weekend.
Now there’s the rational, well-thought-out response we’ve all come to know and love. I happen to sleep with my wife, Craig. The difference between you and me in that area is that I not only go to bed with a woman who’s beautiful, intelligent, remembers my name, has a full set of teeth and is disease-free; I also get to wake up with her the next morning … and I don’t have to give her a tip when she leaves.
Tell you what I’ll do. Since you picked five games, I’ll give you five as well: Indianapolis -9.5; Minnesota +5; Arizona +4.5; Washington -3.5; and Houston -3.5 (based on the lines at covers.com).
If Hearne would like, I’ll e-mail my picks to him each Friday, and at the end of the season, we’ll see who did a better job. One request, Hearne: Since I don’t have a blog full of “awesome tipsters” or an oversized outhouse remodeled into a comedy club to promote, can I mention who’s playing at the Improv? Not sure about their comedians, but I hear the funnel cakes are to die for.
MD – NICE !!! I like that action my money is on MD.
Money on MD here too, not on Tardy the cokehead owl.
Ok I asked a friend of mine in LA who hangs with REAL MOVIE STARS & DIRECTORS who hits Vegas at least 2 or more times a month about teaser betting. Rick and his wife are huge gambling people and love hitting the casino’s as often as they can where they meet up with and hang with many friends. But even a couple who takes the gambling side very serious when in Vegas they as well admit they have never been ahead. It’s a hobby for them a blast when they have a huge winning weekend, but they have the kind of money that allows them to be able to lose what they have in the past. Here is what he advised me.
A teaser is a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout. When your teaser includes a point spread, you can decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog. When your teaser includes a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over. Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
In addition to teaser betting on the point spread, you can also place a teaser on the total (over/under) of any given NFL game.
You can even place a teaser bet that includes the point spread and total in the same wager, but don’t forget, the added comfort comes with a price. Where a parlay on this selection might pay 2.645/1, a 7-point teaser might pay 10/13 (i.e., you would win $7.69 on a $10 teaser bet instead of $26.45 on a parlay wager).
Stay away from parlays, teasers, props and other exotic bets like first half/second half bets and the first 5 innings bets unless you are willing to just hand over cash. They are all a bookie’s (or sportsbooks) wet dream. Sure you get paid 10/11-to-1 if you hit a 4-teamer, but the chances of it happening, consistently, are about the same as your odds of sleeping with Heidi Klum. Instead of one bet on four teams, put your money on the four teams separately. That way when 3-out-of-4 win, you walk away a winner instead of cussing “that damn fourth team!” There’s a reason sportsbooks offer these bets and it’s not because they like to pay you 10-times your bet when they lose. It’s because they ALL put more money in their own pockets. The lure of fast money is too enticing for some people to not realize they’re walking into a trap.
I love it you guys used to write to me and Hearne that there was no such thing as a teaser. Now you are explaining it, thank you.
As for why I am posted on both sites and make calls on radio…the record I have set for the last few years, its being consistent with wins…over 70%….you saw what I said to Chuck before the Thurs. Nite Denver game…pretty on it right and the right call…hey I do lose games, everyone does…I don’t recommend making a living betting…I’m just giving you an educated shot at what is most likely to win for you guys…thats all.
You want to make calls do so, right here. It’s fine..maybe Hearne or another site will allow you to make the weekly calls…I understand we all think we can do this…it gets much tougher as the year goes on, but its always tough.
I say take MD up on his offer.
Take up MD’s offer Tardy, he put it out there for you since you sound like a damn cuckoo clock about your bogus win percentage. Put your money where your huge pie hole is.
Glaze is in Vegas at 8pm writing on kcc. Come on Harley what does that mean the Glaze is? Or are you on your knees in Vegas and don’t want to talk with your mouth full.
sunday night…8pm….if it was my usual run on
a weekend in vegas i’d probably be in my
room.
every sunday go to REHAB PARTY at hard rock…
and party and drink and have a freaking blast.
if ya start at 11am and party til theyshut it down..
then head inside for more…and taking into account
I hang at the mandalay bay/wynn hotels the rest
of the weekend…sunday night might be a night
to calm it down a bit so Mondays aren’t wasted.
See rww glaze probably hit it hard Friday/Saturday..
and i’m sure he has some hot connections in vegas.
Sunday nights…most times when i’m in vegas
I try to get out 6:15 southwest flight so I can
recuperate from the trip.
See amatuers like you don’t understand the
entire vegas experience. Obviously you don’t travel
much.
and no…I wasn’t with glaze…stuck in kc….
although I will be in vegas in the next 5 weeks to
meet with clients.
nice try dude….but if you want to run with the
big guys ya gotta know how to live right!!!!!!!!
70% In sports betting is **NOT** possible
The only way to have a chance in hell to acheive 70% would be to limit your amount of games go on a winning streak, quit, and then be **extremely lucky**.
Guess what by doing so a guy who hits 60% betting more games will make more money than you by playing more games, guaranteed. A guy who does 58% can easily make more money than someone hitting 62%. 62% is crazy hard to do betting a large amount of games.
Amateurs will tout percentage and not have a clue how to win in this business. I’m not trying to come off like a know it all but then again I do know it. They don’t understand the basic basic basic key to winning over time.
We don’t make money in this business with luck. Anyone who claims 70% is full of you know what and should be avoided like the *PLAGUE*.
The most popular kind of bet is without a doubt, flat betting. Every Saturday night or every Monday night, an astronomic number of people place a bet on their favorite team. Soccer, Hockey, Football, on any sports. They just go for a 10$ bet or higher if they can afford to do it. They watch the game with some friends and they have a lot of fun. Sometime they win and sometime they lose. Over a year, they win half of their bets. Of course, they can make some little money over this period but not a lot of money. Like almost everybody they think that it is impossible to make a living at sports gambling especially using flat betting. Well, many people believe professional sports gamblers win almost all of their bets or at least 80% of their bets to make good money. It’s understandable that people think that, but it’s absolutely not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by professional sports gamblers and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively very small. We’ll ignore money line bets here for the sake of clarity, and use only those bets wherein the player risks 107 to win 100. We?ll use point spreads and over/under bets. Against this type of bet, anyone at all can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers’ profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win.Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 6.5 percent of the winnings ($7 for every $100 risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Professional sports gamblers, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it’s often as low as 54 or 56 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional sports gambler, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high and a winning rate of 65% mathematically almost impossible to reach.
+1 – In other words Glazer you’ve been owned.
Well as Hearne will tell you we keep track of my picks, all online for two years, over 70% wins…very good, outstanding…you have to limit your picks, games, you can’t bet a ton of games each week and win..can’t…you should zero in on just 3 or 4 I pick 5 or 6 for the stories, that’s even a bit too many which made my numbers fantastic given the total bets or picks…simple as that.why do so many of you want to argue this all the time, its a fact and maybe you should comment on your picks or my bad ones and why…but do what you want.
I don’t bet the same on each game, I have my one or two that I believe most in and go heavier on those..p.s. lets see so far, I picked all three of the college games correctly…MU was no lock, nor was Michigan over Notre Dame…but I had them and they won…covered and won…I didn’t on the board pick Denver, but when asked before the game and online here I picked Denver and said why…I was right…so give a pro some credit ok.
Sir, you can fool those people in KC all you want but you won’t fool those of us who know. Your picks were lame and the boards in Vegas had these three college games going down more or less as you predicted they would. I could have made bets on all three games as well as you, if in fact you even do bet, but why bother playing for nickels and dimes. An example, your first pick, the MU game wasn’t a game worth even betting on unless you wanted to go heavy on an upset win by Toledo. But even Toledo’s coach probably knew they were going to get beat. That’s what separates us who really know the game over you part timers from Kansas City who twist figures trying to impress their friends. Your win figure is nothing to brag about and why nobody knows or even cares outside of your tiny circle of followers in Kansas City. Anyone in Kansas City could spend a few minutes a week and come up with the same picks as you. It’s easy and for sure easy when you pick the easy safe games all the time.
rick…those are the guys that pick 10-12 games a weekend…
those guys on the radio who sell picks…that’s a scam…
they’re terrible in picking games.
glazes philosophy is right…hand pick 3-4 games that
you feel good about.
70%…its proven he hit that.
the more games you pick the lower your winning percentage
will be….just figuring out the mathematics side of it
if a guy picks 15 games its gonna be hard for him to
hit 50-60%.
glaze works it right…find those golden opportunities to
hit on a game…whether its an easy game or close one.
you need to do some research.
for further information on this subject i’d love to
send you the info I gotabout 3 years ago about
sports betting from mr. silver.
contact me at law4life1000@yahoo.com and i’ll send it to
you if I can find it.
nate’s a mathematics genius and his more intelligent formulas
about betting are pretty cool. thanks.
Rick I’m sorry its so easy, even you could do it…lets see you try..if it was easy Vegas would go broke, all I see is more and more hotels and casinos…my picks are recorded online so I can’t make them up. You sound like the fool you are…”your picks are on a board in Vegas, anyone can pick those” really where…you have never been to Vegas or made any serious bets obviously anyone reading this thinks YOU are a dumb idiot. Which you are. By the way todays ‘easy’ bets lost, New England and Colts did not cover unless you got the 7 point tease for extra money went to MGM Friday and got Pats when they were at 9 and colts at 10 making the wager -2 and -3 a push, hmm only an experienced person would know to do that, like, hey ME…everyone including me felt the Jets would lose, they won…so its not easy for anyone..except you of course. Rick you can bet with your mom or your buddies but not in the big time…your comments show you are not at that level and have idea what you are talking about. Cool, now back to your trash pick up.
PS “anyone in kansas city can make the same bets if they take a few MINUTES to do so” wow our entire town would be millionaires then. Just you don’t do it cause its too easy, right. Right.
So take MD up on his offer. If hearne is keeping track then a little competition between you and MD shouldn’t be a problem. Put up or Shut up.
I’d like to see Rick and MD both show Glazer and the rest of us here how it is done. By the way Glazer I know for a fact Rick spends way more time in Vegas than you do. So you are trash talking someone who is way more savvy in Vegas then you ever will be. When you can fly your own plane into Vegas for the weekend to play then you can beat your chest and claim to be in Ricks league, till then you are as MD says, the part owner of an oversized outhouse remodeled into a comedy club.
I give up Hearne you can’t get new people to try and come in here and say things or try and get them interested in the site when you have Glazer and Harley attacking them and calling them names because they don’t agree with or like what they say. Trust me there are many people smarter than Craig in this game called gambling who I am sure will disagree with what Craig tries to sell us readers a good part of the time.
dave…let me explain something to you
also.
My family ran vegas…and if you get $10,000 cash
i’ll prove that too. From the late 60’s…to early 90’s
our relation ran the hottest hotels in vegas..
If your friend rick or whoever you claim spend all
his time in vegas…he’;s what the casino people
call a L O S E R….not personally…but if you know
anything …the longer you play to worse the odds
get against you walking out a winner.
the smartest gamblers in vegas understand the
way to win is work your bankroll. Sometime i’ll
explain that. But truthis that if you go with the
real smart gamblers they don’t hang in the
casinos. They do it like a business. I’ve met
professional gamblers who are backd by large
money and even they know…its streaks.
They chart the roulette wheel…watch the cards…
they’ve done everthing to try and beat vegas…
but the smartest gamblers will pick and choose
small variable bets and work their patterns
that way.
The guys who live in the casinos….if they
say they’re wnning…they’re liars.
and I think glazedid pretty well.
remember big dave…its a business. Why wold glaze
take a game where he didn’t evaluate the teams
and their players and believe the spread or tease
was going to go his way.
You’re not a businessman but I ask you a question..
WOULD YOU OPEN A BUSINESS IF YOU KNEW
YOU WERE GOING TO LOSE MONEY???????\
glaze bets the game that he thinks he’ll win. Even
chuckles understands that. Even if they’re easy picks
a smart bettor takes them…why? TO WIN MONEY…
I understand your deep hatred for glaze…but he has
put his picks on here…why don’t youdo the same
and see what happens.
glaze has more cash than you and I’m sure his
bets are bigger…but i’d still put my money on
glazebeating almost everyone on here when it comes
to picking winners.
hern said he hits 70%…I don’t reallyfollow it
but i’ll take hearnes word (just this one time..lol).
take care and good luck this season.
So now you are claiming to be related to Cusamano or Civilla.
harley you were born poor and ignorant and have lost ground ever since.
Money talks and BS walks and it appears your shoes are very worn.
You made the bet, I accepted now put up or shut up.
Your $600,000 house is a sludge drying bed. Fitting repository for flotsam you are.
Those fellas who ran Vegas don’t play well with others who make false claims.
no orphan of the poor….i’m not claiming
top know the cussamanos or civellas..
my dad knew them well…I don’t really
know them besides when I did a internship]
in jeff city for alex fazzina at the state house
I met a lot ofthose people.
and besides…they didn’t run vegas…they
ran a kickback operation from some hotels
but they didn’t run the deal like harry
did with the summa corporation in vegas.
I got no problem showing photos…information etc. with the reall people who ran vegas.
if yu need more go and discuss at law4life1000
@yahoo.com.
I can give more info then.
I have no problems in vegas…treated like
kind…maloufs at palms were biggest
non institutuional investors in wells fargo
and we did a lot of business with them
from 2001 to 2008….so I got comped
there.
best friend runs bay….and get vip there.
wynn….I usually don’t like that place…to
expensive but there’s some good restaruants
and shows at his hotels.
I started goig to mgm…but its a huge mess
and you can get lost in that place…
green river…met the owners…but my
favorite has always been the bay ….like the
casino bars …..and lived at rum jungle when it
was open….morea beach club was once topless
but they changed that…still a fun pool…
but am getting a little d mellow for the
24/7 action although theres nothikn like
the skyboxes at rain when we stayed there.
the real control from kc of vegast hwas carl
Caruso…sure you know him…
but harry had the pull when I was younger..
connect to rickles/newton/elvis at Hilton/
it was a blast when I was under 21….
still orphan don’t know the oldest bar in
northeast…but knew genovas…red door…
even when I was 5 wewent to eddy’s lounge
where I went on stage with my go cart….
my family goes way back in the northeast
end….with myuncle and dad (wee were not
Italian)…but mention my family name to
any of the Italians and they all knew and
loved our family
caio…
and if you live out south be sure and check
out johndavid dicapos Italian gardens to
go at 119th and Metcalf…great food and the
Italian cookies beat any that my mom and dad
brought home from all the Italian wedding
they attended.
salud bro!!!!!!
Look Super whatever your pretend name is…you hate me, you don’t know me, but you decided to hate me online long ago. I could win man of the year, date Playmate of the Year and you would find fault…its never going to change…I wrote a book, got it published, it was clearly well received and went out of your way to write dirt on that too, why? Who knows, I DON’T KNOW YOU DUDE, YOU DON’T KNOW ME. You are typical of haters all ALL SITES AND ALL WRITERS WHO DO THIS. Why? You have clearly got some problems. You are not alone, millions of others do what you do on ALL OTHER BLOGS that have a large amount of readers. Why? Attention I guess. I say day, you say night..”your club is a patchwork dive” right, Stanfords was built from ground up at a cost of over 3 million dollars in our industry thats like a top notch NFL stadium…its very nice, everyone knows that, but you insist on putting it down, me down, everyone down…again typical. You will never change..you and a few others even knock people who play there that have had huge success. Why? Thats why you are called a ‘hater’ you hate for no real reason, people you never met and don’t who have never harmed you and especially those who have some celebrity, in KC or nationally. Why? Who knows, cause its not YOU.
Here we have a simple story about picking football games. It’s not about curing Cancer. I never said I’M THE BEST IN THE WORLD. I have just been pretty good for a few years, its a hobby of mine and I give out my picks. It started on radio many years ago. Being accurate for the most part got me on as a guest to many sports shows in KC, still am, without comics just me…it’s just fun. We aren’t changing the world, we aren’t asking you to give up your day job for this stuff. You and other haters here turn it into a war. About what…my percentage of wins at 70% isn’t good enough, or not true, or anyone can do that, or there is no such thing as a tease, or ok there is but not in KC, ok there is in KC but its stupid, ok you picked games anyone can pick, ok….Geez….it’s entertainment…20 of 20 TV guru’s, all who do this for a living picked New York to lose 100%..easy pick right. THEY WON. I picked them to lose, we lost that one….so its not easy. Another hater wrote, “well who would waste a bet on MU over Toledo, even their coach knew they would lose” WTF…waste a bet…what…hey if I was sure MU would win I’d have bet everything I own on it to get paid, who wouldn’t. You can never be sure as Sunday proved. It looks I will go 4-2, thats good but I thought Pats and Colts were locks to cover, they weren’t. At least on the lines I had when I picked them.
I must admit one thing Super guy…without people like you there wouldn’t be all the comments, the fun reads for others, the attacks, the energy…. the haters attack, the writers defend back…way it is…It’s just the mean spirited energy put out that is sad…the fact is its started by the haters, you, not the writer, me, we just at some point strike back. All this noise by you and these other haters over football picks. Wow.
If you don’t like mine put your own up…its ok…we will all see it alright. Happy now.
md in kc….haven’t you read tommy Morrison stories…according to all
those people “no one really knows if the person they’re sleeping
with is disease free”…unless you test everyday…because those diseases
(including hepatitis) can come unknowingly and from other sources
than unprotected sex.
and what does that have to do with football bets.
seriously…it was another stab at glaze completely off the subject.
obviously you’re new here….or using another phony name but md
you’re no better off than glaze or the johns when it comes to
std’s….sorry to break it to ya…
and half the women in joco are cheating…don’t know which half
but theres a 50/50 chance that all girls are sleeping with
someone else. as we learned in all of hearne’s stories on this
subject..”you just never know”……
You just rationalized infidelity, STD’s, and adultery. WOW that’s a new kinda low.
In that case i’m sleeping with your wife and your mom LOL !
MD just saw your picks for the easy NFL…Vikes you picked lost and didn’t cover, Colts lost and didn’t cover and AZ did lose but cover so you are 1-2…see not so easy is it…
md stands for major disappointment. rags about glaze’s
picks then strikes out on his own.
WTF md…if you’re gonna take on glaze…at least make sure
your numbers are better.
you’re more fuK**ng dumb than chuck! wahts up with 0-3 on
opening weekend….
harley stands for nothing but bloviating and letting his mouth write checks which make his arse pucker thinking about it.
10 large on the table. Balls in your court. Rather balls in your mouth again.
Rags about Glazer’s picks.. Lets see Glazer called out Rick.. MD Called out Glazer.. So only makes sense that MD and Glazer should bet it out.. Your so dumb you’d rather play the hate card then work through the truth. Idiot
Checking the picks, and your record ain’t too much to write about at this point either, Craig.
You had a total of five bets. Two college bets — one as a two-team teaser (Missouri and Oregon), the other as a single game. You won those two.
You took New England and Indianapolis in a teaser. New England didn’t cover. (As you explained above, you have to win both games to win.) That’s a loss.
You took Tampa Bay over the Jets. That’s a loss.
You have Houston and KC in another two-team teaser. If Houston wins by two or more tonight, you’ll win that teaser bet, which would make you 3-2 for the week.
I’m 1-2 at the moment. If Washington and Houston both win by four points or more, I’ll also be 3-2 for the week.
I’m not sure where Harley comes up with some of his numbers. Judging from what he writes, he’s not only a lousy attorney; he’d make a pretty crappy accountant as well.
MD
Whoops, MD kinda took you out to the woodshed Tardy the cokehead owl.
It was a much tougher week in the NFL then it looked..almost all the games were decided by less than a TD…and many ‘sure’ losers covered the spread or won…Jets, Bills,Raiders, Chargers..all covered and the Jets won…so almost all ‘pickers’ in the media were way off…its a tough gig…I think my winning 3 of 5 this week was decent…not great, but still a winning start.
Congrats, Glazer. You beat me this week.
Standings after week one:
MD in KC: 1-4
CG: 3-2
Total standings to date:
MD in KC: 1-4
CG: 3-2
I’ll post my picks next Friday.
MD
I’ll be here. Fire away.
Haven’t seen Glazer’s picks yet, so I’ll post mine here:
Baltimore -6.5
Indianapolis -3
New Orleans -3
Oakland -5.5
Cincinnati -7
MD